Timothy Plan Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| TLGAX Fund | USD 12.87 -0.06 -0.46% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
This view frames how Timothy Plan Large responds to recent headlines and peer activity within its market context.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Timothy Plan Large on the next trading day is expected to be 12.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.60.Timothy Plan after-hype prediction price | $ 12.87 |
Sentiment indicators are one input among forecasting models, technical signals, analyst estimates, earnings data, and momentum measures.
Timothy |
Timothy Plan Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Timothy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Timothy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Timothy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Timothy Plan Large on the next trading day is expected to be 12.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.60 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Timothy Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Timothy Plan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Timothy Plan | Timothy Plan Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Timothy Plan Large uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Timothy Plan mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Timothy Plan mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0196 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1288 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0099 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.6018 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Timothy Plan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Timothy Plan at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Timothy Plan's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Timothy Plan's historical news coverage.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Timothy Plan Large assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Timothy Plan is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Timothy Plan backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Timothy Plan, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events | 1 Events | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.87 | 12.87 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
Timothy Plan Large is at this time traded for 12.87. The fund stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Timothy is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Timothy Plan is about 14800.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.87. The fund last dividend was issued on the 12th of December 1970. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Timothy Plan to cross-verify projections for Timothy Plan. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Timothy Plan's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Timothy Plan's future price movements. Getting to know how Timothy Plan's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TPIAX | Timothy Plan International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | 0.07 | 1.60 | -1.80 | 5.44 | |
| TLVAX | Timothy Largemid Cap Value | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.74 | 0.10 | 1.27 | -1.38 | 3.38 | |
| FSCCX | First American Investment | -0.27 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.49 | -1.83 | 4.97 | |
| CAF | Morgan Stanley China | 0.15 | 2 per month | 0.84 | 0.13 | 1.85 | -1.70 | 5.27 | |
| SAISX | Sa International Small | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.02 | 0.10 | 1.44 | -1.49 | 5.04 | |
| MMD | Mainstay Definedterm Muncipal | -0.04 | 4 per month | 0.36 | 0.19 | 0.65 | -0.76 | 2.87 | |
| FMCLX | Federated Mid Cap Index | 0.06 | 1 per month | 0.76 | 0.14 | 1.79 | -1.78 | 12.69 | |
| TDF | Templeton Dragon Closed | 0.04 | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.56 | -1.41 | 5.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for Timothy Plan
For every potential investor in Timothy, whether a beginner or expert, Timothy Plan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.Timothy Plan Related Equities
The following equities are related to Timothy Plan within the Large Growth space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Timothy Plan against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Timothy Plan Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Timothy Plan mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Timothy Plan shares will generate the highest return on.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.87 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.87 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.06 |
Timothy Plan Risk Indicators
The analysis of Timothy Plan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Timothy Plan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8989 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Variance | 1.34 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Timothy Plan
Coverage intensity for Timothy Plan Large matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Story coverage on Macroaxis is built for readers who approach markets from different levels of experience but share the same need for disciplined investment context. Used well, these stories become part of a broader workflow built around idea generation, validation, and risk-adjusted portfolio design.