THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| THIMX Fund | USD 13.24 -0.04 -0.30% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
The hype summary for Thornburg Intermediate Municipal aligns attention signals with price movement and peers.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Thornburg Intermediate Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 13.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.80.THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE after-hype prediction price | $ 13.24 |
Attention metrics here are presented with forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings context.
THORNBURG |
THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE Additional Predictive Modules
Forecasting THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's price movement relies on structured analysis of indicator behavior, momentum signatures, and historical volatility patterns. No prediction model eliminates uncertainty; the goal is to identify scenarios with favorable risk-adjusted probabilities.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 18th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Thornburg Intermediate Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 13.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.80 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict THORNBURG Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE | THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 13.11 on the downside to about 13.37 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 106.6683 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0032 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0136 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.001 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.8 |
While mean reversion in THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE is a statistically observable tendency, it operates on uncertain timelines. Positions sized too aggressively against the trend can suffer sustained losses before reversion occurs.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
One key insight from THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's price distribution analysis is that the most likely single outcome - the mode - is not necessarily the most important. The width and shape of THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's distribution determine how often extreme deviations from the central forecast occur.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical analysis of THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE reveals distinct patterns in how THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's price responds to different categories of news. THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.11 and 13.37, respectively. The most informative signals come from news categories where THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE has shown consistent and predictable historical reactions.
Current Value
Macroaxis estimates the after-hype price of Thornburg Intermediate Municipal across a 3 months horizon to evaluate where the instrument could settle once headline distortion subsides. THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE is Very Low at this time.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.13 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 5 Events | 1 Events | In 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.24 | 13.24 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
Thornburg Intermediate is at this time traded for 13.24. The fund has historical hype elasticity of 0.43, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.22. THORNBURG is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 0.61%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE is about 1.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.02. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next expected press release will be in 5 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE can be used to cross-verify projections for THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE. The historical view provides additional context.Related Hype Analysis
Tracking the hype elasticity of THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's direct competitors provides a quantified measure of how much news about other companies in the sector affects THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FIKBX | Fidelity Advisor Financial | -25.24 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.90 | -1.87 | 10.33 | |
| MCBXX | BlackRock Financial Institutions | 0.00 | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BTO | John Hancock Financial | 0.20 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 1.90 | -1.97 | 9.02 | |
| GCFSX | Gabelli Global Financial | -10.97 | 3 per month | 0.89 | 0.03 | 1.13 | -1.34 | 4.16 | |
| XFINX | Angel Oak Financial | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.22 | -0.43 | 1.29 | |
| PRISX | T Rowe Price | -28.69 | 8 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.82 | -1.90 | 9.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE
Any investor evaluating THORNBURG must grapple with the challenge of interpreting THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's price movement accurately. THORNBURG Mutual Fund price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE Related Equities
The following equities are related to THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE within the Muni National Interm space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE assess how the mutual fund responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Thornburg Intermediate Municipal.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.24 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.02 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.04 |
THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0759 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1243 | |||
| Variance | 0.0155 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0451 | |||
| Semi Variance | -0.0012 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.12 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE
Coverage intensity for Thornburg Intermediate Municipal matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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