THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| THIMX Fund | USD 13.18 -0.05 -0.38% |
This page provides Double Exponential Smoothing reference data for Thornburg Intermediate Municipal, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thornburg Intermediate Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 13.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.72.When Thornburg Intermediate Municipal prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Thornburg Intermediate Municipal trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference information for THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thornburg Intermediate Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 13.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.72 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict THORNBURG Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 13.03 and upside near 13.31.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0016 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0121 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 9.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.7167 |
Other Forecasting Options for THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE
The autocorrelation structure of THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's daily returns reveals whether THORNBURG exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in THORNBURG Mutual Fund price data.THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE within the Muni National Interm space and offer context for ranking and strength. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces. The data below allows side-by-side review across the most common financial metrics.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE mutual fund help assess momentum and resilience across environments. Investors can use these indicators to make informed decisions about market timing when trading THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.18 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.18 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 37.59 |
THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE's investment and either accepting or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0824 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.0972 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1389 | |||
| Variance | 0.0193 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0741 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0094 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.12 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for THORNBURG INTERMEDIATE
A coverage review of Thornburg Intermediate Municipal shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.