TFI International Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| TFII Stock | CAD 149.68 4.31 2.80% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TFI International on the next trading day is expected to be 150.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.41. TFI Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of relative strength index of TFI International's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using TFI International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TFI International from the perspective of TFI International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TFI International on the next trading day is expected to be 150.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.41. TFI International after-hype prediction price | CAD 154.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
TFI |
TFI International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TFI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TFI using various technical indicators. When you analyze TFI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TFI International Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TFI International on the next trading day is expected to be 150.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92, mean absolute percentage error of 7.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TFI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TFI International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TFI International Stock Forecast Pattern
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TFI International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TFI International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TFI International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 148.76 and 152.71, respectively. We have considered TFI International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TFI International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TFI International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.235 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9221 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0143 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 113.4056 |
Predictive Modules for TFI International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TFI International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TFI International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TFI International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TFI International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TFI International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TFI International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TFI International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TFI International's historical news coverage. TFI International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 152.16 and 156.06, respectively. We have considered TFI International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TFI International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TFI International is based on 3 months time horizon.
TFI International Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TFI International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TFI International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TFI International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
149.68 | 154.11 | 0.08 |
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TFI International Hype Timeline
TFI International is at this time traded for 149.68on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. TFI is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 154.11 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on TFI International is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 149.68. The company reported the revenue of 7.99 B. Net Income was 402.2 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.62 B. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TFI International to cross-verify your projections.TFI International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TFI International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TFI International's future price movements. Getting to know how TFI International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TFI International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FTT | Finning International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.56 | 0.12 | 3.62 | (3.02) | 9.57 | |
| CAE | CAE Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.41 | 0.08 | 2.98 | (2.28) | 10.00 | |
| SOBO | South Bow | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.28 | 0.0005 | 1.65 | (1.99) | 8.27 | |
| BBD-PB | Bombardier Pref B | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.95 | (0.09) | 1.02 | (0.89) | 5.71 | |
| TIH | Toromont Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.42 | 0.07 | 2.37 | (2.00) | 12.66 | |
| MTL | Mullen Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.99 | 0.18 | 1.56 | (1.49) | 5.78 | |
| EFN | Element Fleet Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.80 | (2.21) | 8.09 | |
| GRGD | Groupe Dynamite | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.35 | 0.05 | 6.97 | (6.39) | 14.51 | |
| BBD-B | Bombardier | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.30 | 0.16 | 4.41 | (4.28) | 12.41 | |
| SES | Secure Energy Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.68 | (2.64) | 8.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for TFI International
For every potential investor in TFI, whether a beginner or expert, TFI International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TFI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TFI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TFI International's price trends.TFI International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TFI International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TFI International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TFI International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TFI International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TFI International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TFI International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TFI International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TFI International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5830.54 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.95) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 151.34 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 150.79 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (3.81) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.31) |
TFI International Risk Indicators
The analysis of TFI International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TFI International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tfi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Variance | 3.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TFI International
The number of cover stories for TFI International depends on current market conditions and TFI International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TFI International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TFI International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TFI International to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in TFI Stock, please use our How to Invest in TFI International guide.You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.