Swvl Holdings Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| SWVL Stock | USD 2.47 0.10 4.22% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Swvl Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 2.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.35. Swvl Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Swvl Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Swvl Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Swvl Holdings fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength indicator of Swvl Holdings' share price is at 50. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Swvl Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 125 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.263 |
Using Swvl Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Swvl Holdings Corp from the perspective of Swvl Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Swvl Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 2.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.35. Swvl Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 2.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Swvl Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Swvl Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Swvl price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Swvl using various technical indicators. When you analyze Swvl charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Swvl Holdings Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Swvl Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 2.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Swvl Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Swvl Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Swvl Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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Swvl Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Swvl Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Swvl Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 7.93, respectively. We have considered Swvl Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Swvl Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Swvl Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0998 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1186 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.047 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.3531 |
Predictive Modules for Swvl Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Swvl Holdings Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Swvl Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Swvl Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Swvl Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Swvl Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Swvl Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Swvl Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Swvl Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Swvl Holdings' historical news coverage. Swvl Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.12 and 7.55, respectively. We have considered Swvl Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Swvl Holdings is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Swvl Holdings Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Swvl Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Swvl Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Swvl Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Swvl Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 5.11 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.47 | 2.47 | 0.00 |
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Swvl Holdings Hype Timeline
Swvl Holdings Corp is at this time traded for 2.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Swvl is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.26%. %. The volatility of related hype on Swvl Holdings is about 28388.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.47. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.59. Swvl Holdings Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:25 split on the 26th of January 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Swvl Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Swvl Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Swvl Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Swvl Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Swvl Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Swvl Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BLBX | Blackboxstocks | (0.07) | 13 per month | 6.62 | 0.06 | 14.27 | (11.59) | 37.55 | |
| CSAI | Cloudastructure Class A | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 13.58 | (12.42) | 44.86 | |
| CYN | Cyngn Inc | (0.41) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 8.79 | (8.91) | 30.60 | |
| CREX | Creative Realities | 0.12 | 8 per month | 2.80 | 0.08 | 9.89 | (5.28) | 26.54 | |
| SPPL | SIMPPLE LTD Ordinary | 0.35 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 10.42 | (8.31) | 24.08 | |
| NTCL | NETCLASS TECHNOLOGY INC | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 12.50 | (16.36) | 71.43 | |
| WETO | Webus International Limited | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 5.43 | (8.78) | 20.86 | |
| AIFF | Firefly Neuroscience | (0.03) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 5.99 | (9.16) | 24.51 | |
| FCUV | Focus Universal | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 8.21 | (16.67) | 48.92 | |
| BLIV | BeLive Holdings Ordinary | 0.29 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.96 | (7.09) | 25.35 |
Other Forecasting Options for Swvl Holdings
For every potential investor in Swvl, whether a beginner or expert, Swvl Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Swvl Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Swvl. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Swvl Holdings' price trends.Swvl Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Swvl Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Swvl Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Swvl Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Swvl Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Swvl Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Swvl Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Swvl Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Swvl Holdings Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Swvl Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Swvl Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Swvl Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting swvl stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.96 | |||
| Variance | 24.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Swvl Holdings
The number of cover stories for Swvl Holdings depends on current market conditions and Swvl Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Swvl Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Swvl Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Swvl Holdings Short Properties
Swvl Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Swvl Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Swvl Holdings Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Swvl Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Swvl Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Swvl Holdings to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Swvl Holdings. If investors know Swvl will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Swvl Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.59) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.263 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Swvl Holdings Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Swvl that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Swvl Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Swvl Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Swvl Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Swvl Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Swvl Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Swvl Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Swvl Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.