SPDR DoubleLine Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| STOT Etf | USD 47.34 0.03 0.06% |
SPDR Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of SPDR DoubleLine's etf price is slightly above 62. This usually implies that the etf is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling SPDR, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using SPDR DoubleLine hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SPDR DoubleLine Short from the perspective of SPDR DoubleLine response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SPDR DoubleLine Short on the next trading day is expected to be 47.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.36. SPDR DoubleLine after-hype prediction price | USD 47.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR DoubleLine to cross-verify your projections. SPDR DoubleLine Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine SPDR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SPDR using various technical indicators. When you analyze SPDR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SPDR DoubleLine Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SPDR DoubleLine Short on the next trading day is expected to be 47.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0007, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SPDR Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SPDR DoubleLine's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SPDR DoubleLine Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SPDR DoubleLine | SPDR DoubleLine Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
SPDR DoubleLine Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SPDR DoubleLine's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SPDR DoubleLine's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.28 and 47.39, respectively. We have considered SPDR DoubleLine's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SPDR DoubleLine etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SPDR DoubleLine etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.0688 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0068 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0227 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 5.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.365 |
Predictive Modules for SPDR DoubleLine
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SPDR DoubleLine Short. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.SPDR DoubleLine After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of SPDR DoubleLine at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SPDR DoubleLine or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of SPDR DoubleLine, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
SPDR DoubleLine Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting SPDR DoubleLine's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SPDR DoubleLine's historical news coverage. SPDR DoubleLine's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.25 and 47.37, respectively. We have considered SPDR DoubleLine's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
SPDR DoubleLine is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SPDR DoubleLine Short is based on 3 months time horizon.
SPDR DoubleLine Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as SPDR DoubleLine is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SPDR DoubleLine backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SPDR DoubleLine, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
47.34 | 47.31 | 0.00 |
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SPDR DoubleLine Hype Timeline
SPDR DoubleLine Short is at this time traded for 47.34. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. SPDR is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on SPDR DoubleLine is about 115.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.34. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR DoubleLine to cross-verify your projections.SPDR DoubleLine Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to SPDR DoubleLine's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SPDR DoubleLine's future price movements. Getting to know how SPDR DoubleLine's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SPDR DoubleLine may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SMB | VanEck Short Muni | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.63) | 0.17 | (0.17) | 0.58 | |
| FTSD | Franklin Liberty Short | (0.05) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.93) | 0.13 | (0.09) | 0.34 | |
| VIXY | ProShares VIX Short Term | (0.55) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.09 | (5.10) | 20.38 | |
| TZA | Direxion Daily Small | (0.13) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 5.42 | (5.52) | 16.49 | |
| FUMB | First Trust Ultra | (0.03) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (1.02) | 0.10 | (0.05) | 0.45 | |
| QID | ProShares UltraShort QQQ | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.09 | (2.89) | 9.90 | |
| AAPU | Direxion Shares ETF | (0.06) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.16 | (3.44) | 11.48 | |
| GUSH | Direxion Daily SP | 0.84 | 1 per month | 2.72 | 0.05 | 5.33 | (3.99) | 15.28 | |
| SVXY | ProShares Short VIX | 0.47 | 4 per month | 1.60 | 0.05 | 2.70 | (2.62) | 9.53 | |
| EMNT | PIMCO Enhanced Short | 0.01 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (3.85) | 0.04 | (0.01) | 0.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for SPDR DoubleLine
For every potential investor in SPDR, whether a beginner or expert, SPDR DoubleLine's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SPDR Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SPDR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SPDR DoubleLine's price trends.SPDR DoubleLine Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SPDR DoubleLine etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SPDR DoubleLine could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SPDR DoubleLine by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SPDR DoubleLine Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SPDR DoubleLine etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SPDR DoubleLine shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SPDR DoubleLine etf market strength indicators, traders can identify SPDR DoubleLine Short entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SPDR DoubleLine Risk Indicators
The analysis of SPDR DoubleLine's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SPDR DoubleLine's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting spdr etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0462 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.0571 | |||
| Variance | 0.0033 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0041 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.01) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SPDR DoubleLine
The number of cover stories for SPDR DoubleLine depends on current market conditions and SPDR DoubleLine's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that SPDR DoubleLine is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about SPDR DoubleLine's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR DoubleLine to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
The market value of SPDR DoubleLine Short is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SPDR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SPDR DoubleLine's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SPDR DoubleLine's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SPDR DoubleLine's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SPDR DoubleLine's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SPDR DoubleLine's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SPDR DoubleLine is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SPDR DoubleLine's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.