Smith Micro Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SMSI Stock | USD 0.85 -0.02 -2.09% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Smith Micro is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smith Micro Software on the next trading day is projected to be 0.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.48.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Smith Micro observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Smith Micro Software observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Smith Micro presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smith Micro Software on the next trading day is expected to be 0.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0013 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.48 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smith Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smith Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Smith Micro's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 0.01 on the downside to about 6.74 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smith Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smith Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0034 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0251 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0411 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.4807 |
Other Forecasting Options for Smith Micro
The distribution of Smith Micro's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Smith Micro's chart that simple price charts miss.Smith Micro Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Smith Micro within the Information Technology space and serve as useful points for comparison. Profit comparisons show whether Smith Micro earns above or below average returns next to its peers.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Smith Micro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Smith Micro give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Smith Micro Software.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.85 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.02 |
Smith Micro Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Smith Micro's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Smith Micro's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 4.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.73 | |||
| Variance | 32.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 22.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 15.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -5.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Smith Micro
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Smith Micro Software can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Smith Micro Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Smith Micro Software matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.5 M |