Smith Micro Software Stock Performance

SMSI Stock  USD 0.81  0.01  1.25%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Smith Micro holds a performance score of 10. The company has a Beta (Market Sensitivity) of 0.53, which means generally lower market sensitivity than the broad market. Returns on Smith Micro tend to trail the broader market in strong rallies but hold up better when sentiment turns negative.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Moderate
 
Weak
 
Strong
Across the last 90 days, the risk-adjusted return profile of Smith Micro Software is weaker than 10% of the global equities and portfolios reviewed by Macroaxis. The business is commonly classified in the Technology sector and the Software—Application industry. Despite fairly weak basic indicators, Smith Micro demonstrated solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. Learn More
 Last Split Factor
1:8
 Dividend Date
2016-08-17
 Last Split Date
2024-04-11
Begin Period Cash Flow2.8 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities1.2 M

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 55.00 in Smith Micro Software on December 22, 2025 and sold it today you would have earned a total of $ 26.00 from holding Smith Micro Software or generated 47.27% return on investment over 90 days. Smith Micro Software is currently generating a 0.7831% daily expected return and carries 5.7928% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In different words, 51% of stocks are less volatile than Smith, and 85% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This market-relative note looks at return potential and the amount of risk required to get it. It highlights whether the current reward profile compensates for the level of uncertainty assumed. Given the investment horizon of 90 days Smith Micro is expected to generate 7.08 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 7.08 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.14 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.11 per unit of risk.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

For Smith Stock, the observed tendency of price to return to a central value is a key input to forecasting models. This mean reversion pattern, however, does not apply uniformly - some stocks remain mispriced for extended periods, suggesting that embedded risk premiums affect the speed of correction.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
0.81 90 days 0.81
about 1.07
According to a normal distribution model, the odds of Smith Micro moving above the current price in 90 days from now are about 1.07 (The density curve for Smith Micro Software shows where Smith Stock price is most likely to settle within 90 days).
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Smith Micro has a beta of 0.53. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Smith Micro's average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during a bear market, the loss from holding Smith Micro Software is expected to be smaller as well. Additionally, Smith Micro Software has an alpha of 0.6006, implying that it can generate a 0.6006 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   Smith Micro Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Smith Micro

A wide range of forecasting techniques can be applied to Smith Micro Software and the broader stock market. While market prediction remains inherently uncertain, combining multiple approaches and evaluating their results is one of the most effective ways to improve the quality of investment decisions.
Mean reversion in Smith Micro is more reliable over longer time horizons. Short-term deviations can persist and even widen before correcting, making position sizing and risk management critical.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.040.816.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.040.736.52
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.020.786.57
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
2.282.502.78
Details
Effective investment decisions about Smith Micro require competitive context. Benchmarking Smith Micro's against peers on earnings quality, growth consistency, and balance sheet strength can materially change the investment conclusion.

Primary Risk Indicators

The stock market's recent history has been defined by volatility, with multiple large corrections and rallies in the last 10-20 years. Smith Micro has participated in these swings. Investors holding Smith Micro Software can protect their portfolios by monitoring Smith Micro's risk indicators and implementing appropriate hedging strategies.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.60
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.53
σ
Overall volatility
0.10
Ir
Information ratio 0.11

Investor Alerts and Insights

Investors in Smith Micro benefit from automated alerts that flag material stock changes as they occur. Smith Micro Software notifications cover technical signals, fundamental shifts, and notable headlines that may impact investment timing.
Smith Micro Software is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Smith Micro Software has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Smith Micro Software appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Smith Micro Software has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported previous year's revenue of 17.36 M. Net Loss for the year was -29.33 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 12.86 M.
Smith Micro Software currently holds about 5.36 M in cash with -7.19 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.1.
Roughly 27.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Smith Micro CEO withholds shares to pay taxes, retains large stake - Stock Titan

Price Density Drivers

Key market indicators for Smith Micro reflect the tension between long and short positioning, along with broader investor sentiment. Reviewing the table below supports assessment of the current dynamics driving Smith Micro's price behavior.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding20.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.5 M

Smith Micro Fundamentals Growth

The market prices Smith Stock according to Smith Micro's ability to generate revenue growth, maintain healthy margins, and manage debt effectively. These fundamental drivers have a direct and measurable impact on Smith Stock performance.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Smith Micro performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Liquidity conditions can influence realized performance through spreads and execution cost. Smith Micro shows ROE of -99.17%, ROA of -32.95%.

The analytics block for Smith Micro Software relies on periodic company reporting and market reference feeds, with quality checks and normalization applied before rendering. Timing can vary by data vendor. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Rifka Kats - Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Last reviewed on March 6th, 2026