ScanSource Stock Forward View
| SCSC Stock | USD 36.76 0.07 0.19% |
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for ScanSource is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ScanSource on the next trading day is expected to be 34.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.10.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ScanSource. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ScanSource. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for ScanSource presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. ScanSource Cash Forecast
Analysts forecasting ScanSource's cash flows use statistical models that capture seasonal patterns. Revenue growth rates, margin trends, and working capital efficiency drive the modeling of ScanSource's cash evolution.
Cash | First Reported 1993-06-30 | Previous Quarter 124.9 M | Current Value 83.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 49.5 M |
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Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ScanSource on the next trading day is expected to be 34.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.27 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.10 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ScanSource Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ScanSource's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ScanSource | ScanSource Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates ScanSource's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ScanSource stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ScanSource stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9304 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0509 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0274 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 64.1041 |
Other Forecasting Options for ScanSource
The distribution of ScanSource's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in ScanSource's chart that simple price charts miss.ScanSource Related Equities
Sizing up ScanSource against these stocks within the Information Technology space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Profit comparisons show whether ScanSource earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. The peer review below gives a clear framework for judging ScanSource's standing among rivals.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ScanSource Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for ScanSource give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in ScanSource.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4973.63 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0642 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 36.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 36.75 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.07 |
ScanSource Risk Indicators
A thorough review of ScanSource's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in ScanSource's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Variance | 9.04 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ScanSource
A coverage review of ScanSource shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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ScanSource Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to ScanSource matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 126.2 M |