ScanSource Stock Forward View

SCSC Stock  USD 36.76  0.07  0.19%   
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for ScanSource is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ScanSource on the next trading day is expected to be 34.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.10.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ScanSource. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ScanSource. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for ScanSource presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes.

ScanSource Cash Forecast

Analysts forecasting ScanSource's cash flows use statistical models that capture seasonal patterns. Revenue growth rates, margin trends, and working capital efficiency drive the modeling of ScanSource's cash evolution.
 
Cash  
 First Reported
1993-06-30
 Previous Quarter
124.9 M
 Current Value
83.5 M
 Quarterly Volatility
49.5 M
Macro event markers
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
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Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for ScanSource is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ScanSource value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ScanSource on the next trading day is expected to be 34.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.27 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.10 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ScanSource Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ScanSource's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ScanSource  ScanSource Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates ScanSource's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Market Value
36.76
34.47
Expected Value
37.57
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ScanSource stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ScanSource stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.9304
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0509
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0274
SAESum of the absolute errors64.1041
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ScanSource. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ScanSource. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Other Forecasting Options for ScanSource

The distribution of ScanSource's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in ScanSource's chart that simple price charts miss.

ScanSource Related Equities

Sizing up ScanSource against these stocks within the Information Technology space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Profit comparisons show whether ScanSource earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. The peer review below gives a clear framework for judging ScanSource's standing among rivals.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ScanSource Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for ScanSource give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in ScanSource.

ScanSource Risk Indicators

A thorough review of ScanSource's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in ScanSource's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ScanSource

A coverage review of ScanSource shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.

ScanSource Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to ScanSource matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding23.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments126.2 M

More Resources for ScanSource Stock Analysis

A baseline understanding of ScanSource is formed through its financial statements and trends. Highlighted below are reports that provide context for ScanSource Stock: