Stepan Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SCL Stock | USD 56.32 0.20 0.36% |
Stepan Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Stepan's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Stepan's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Stepan fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Stepan's share price is above 70 as of now. This usually implies that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Stepan, making its price go up or down. Momentum 74
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.54) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.43 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.245 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.515 | Wall Street Target Price 75 |
Using Stepan hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Stepan Company from the perspective of Stepan response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Stepan using Stepan's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Stepan using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Stepan's stock price.
Stepan Implied Volatility | 0.79 |
Stepan's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Stepan Company stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Stepan's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Stepan stock will not fluctuate a lot when Stepan's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stepan Company on the next trading day is expected to be 56.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.74. Stepan after-hype prediction price | USD 57.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stepan to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Stepan contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Stepan Company will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0494% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Stepan trading at USD 56.32, that is roughly USD 0.0278 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Stepan's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Stepan Company options at the current volatility level of 0.79%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Stepan Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Stepan's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Stepan's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Stepan stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Stepan's open interest, investors have to compare it to Stepan's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Stepan is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Stepan. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Stepan Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Stepan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Stepan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Stepan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Stepan Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stepan Company on the next trading day is expected to be 56.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Stepan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Stepan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stepan Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Stepan | Stepan Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Stepan Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Stepan's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Stepan's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.11 and 58.41, respectively. We have considered Stepan's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Stepan stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Stepan stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1447 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6397 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.7412 |
Predictive Modules for Stepan
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Stepan Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Stepan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Stepan After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Stepan at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Stepan or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Stepan, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Stepan Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Stepan's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Stepan's historical news coverage. Stepan's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 55.54 and 58.84, respectively. We have considered Stepan's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Stepan is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Stepan Company is based on 3 months time horizon.
Stepan Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Stepan is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Stepan backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Stepan, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 1.65 | 0.29 | 0.13 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
56.32 | 57.19 | 0.51 |
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Stepan Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Stepan Company is traded for 56.32. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.29, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.13. Stepan is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 57.19 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.51%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.47%. The volatility of related hype on Stepan is about 583.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 56.45. The company reported the last year's revenue of 2.18 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 50.37 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 275.07 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stepan to cross-verify your projections.Stepan Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Stepan's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Stepan's future price movements. Getting to know how Stepan's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Stepan may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| REX | REX American Resources | (0.03) | 11 per month | 1.62 | 0.01 | 2.78 | (2.66) | 8.84 | |
| ECVT | Ecovyst | (0.16) | 9 per month | 1.69 | 0.18 | 3.31 | (2.86) | 13.76 | |
| BAK | Braskem SA Class | (0.15) | 4 per month | 2.81 | 0.13 | 8.68 | (4.87) | 27.76 | |
| ODC | Oil Dri | (0.78) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.16 | (3.03) | 15.64 | |
| GSM | Ferroglobe PLC | (0.22) | 8 per month | 3.24 | (0.02) | 5.66 | (5.47) | 19.69 | |
| ASPI | ASP Isotopes Common | (0.48) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 16.16 | (10.29) | 28.83 | |
| UAN | CVR Partners LP | 4.48 | 9 per month | 2.57 | 0.09 | 3.68 | (1.72) | 18.65 | |
| GPRE | Green Plains Renewable | (0.30) | 10 per month | 3.58 | 0.05 | 5.59 | (4.66) | 27.29 | |
| MUX | McEwen Mining | 0.51 | 8 per month | 3.19 | 0.15 | 6.49 | (4.81) | 14.79 | |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings | (0.04) | 12 per month | 1.85 | (0.01) | 3.56 | (3.71) | 8.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for Stepan
For every potential investor in Stepan, whether a beginner or expert, Stepan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Stepan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Stepan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Stepan's price trends.Stepan Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Stepan stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Stepan could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Stepan by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Stepan Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Stepan stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Stepan shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Stepan stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Stepan Company entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Stepan Risk Indicators
The analysis of Stepan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Stepan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stepan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Variance | 2.84 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Stepan
The number of cover stories for Stepan depends on current market conditions and Stepan's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Stepan is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Stepan's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Stepan Short Properties
Stepan's future price predictability will typically decrease when Stepan's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Stepan Company often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Stepan's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Stepan's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 99.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stepan to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Is Specialty Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Stepan. If investors know Stepan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Stepan assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.54) | Dividend Share 1.54 | Earnings Share 1.98 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.079 |
Understanding Stepan Company requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Stepan's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Stepan's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Stepan's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Stepan's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Stepan is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Stepan's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.