Stepan Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| SCL Stock | USD 47.07 2.23 4.97% |
Stepan Company's Simple Moving Average reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for Stepan. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for Stepan.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Stepan Company on the next trading day is expected to be 47.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.52.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Stepan Company price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Stepan. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future All Simple Moving Average forecast figures shown for Stepan Company are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Stepan Company on the next trading day is expected to be 47.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 , mean absolute percentage error of 5.34 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.52 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Stepan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Stepan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Stepan's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Stepan stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Stepan stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1093 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0092 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1782 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0221 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 69.515 |
Other Forecasting Options for Stepan
Bollinger Bands applied to Stepan Stock price data measure how far Stepan has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Stepan's price data. On-balance volume for Stepan Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in Stepan. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for Stepan's.Stepan Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Materials space can help frame Stepan's pricing and running costs in context. Checking Stepan against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks. These links can also guide portfolio spreading choices within the sector.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Stepan Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Stepan Company, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Stepan Company. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Stepan. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around Stepan Company.
Stepan Risk Indicators
Analyzing Stepan's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for stepan stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Stepan's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing Stepan's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in Stepan's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.09 | |||
| Variance | 9.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Stepan
A coverage review of Stepan Company shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Stepan Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Stepan Company matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 132.7 M |