T ROWE Mutual Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| RPGAX Fund | USD 15.86 -0.01 -0.06% |
This reference page presents Polynomial Regression forecast data for T Rowe Price. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 15.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.76.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the T ROWE historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm This Polynomial Regression forecast data for T Rowe Price is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 15.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.76 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RPGAX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T ROWE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates T ROWE's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T ROWE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T ROWE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.5333 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.078 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0048 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.7554 |
Other Forecasting Options for T ROWE
T ROWE's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in RPGAX often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.T ROWE Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of T ROWE within the World Allocation space and offer context for ranking and strength. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how T ROWE's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag T ROWE across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T ROWE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how T ROWE mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading T Rowe Price.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.86 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.86 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.04 |
T ROWE Risk Indicators
The analysis of T ROWE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding T ROWE's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4098 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6286 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5513 | |||
| Variance | 0.3039 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4901 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3951 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.39 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T ROWE
A coverage review of T Rowe Price shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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