Roivant Sciences Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ROIV Stock | USD 27.69 -0.01 -0.04% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Roivant Sciences is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Triple Exponential Smoothing output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Roivant Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 27.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.52.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Roivant Sciences observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Roivant Sciences observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Roivant Sciences presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Roivant Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 27.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.69 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.52 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Roivant Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Roivant Sciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Roivant Sciences | Roivant Sciences Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Roivant Sciences for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 24.24 and upside around 31.18 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Roivant Sciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Roivant Sciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0885 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4834 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0189 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.5206 |
Other Forecasting Options for Roivant Sciences
The distribution of Roivant Sciences' daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Roivant Sciences' chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Roivant Sciences' linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in Roivant.Roivant Sciences Related Equities
These stocks are related to Roivant Sciences within the Health Care space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Market cap and total value checks frame Roivant Sciences' size within the competitive field. Investors should look for peers that steadily beat or lag Roivant Sciences across many periods.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Roivant Sciences Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Roivant Sciences give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Roivant Sciences. Market strength analysis for Roivant Sciences works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For Roivant Sciences, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
Roivant Sciences Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Roivant Sciences' risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Roivant Sciences' allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of Roivant Sciences' risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Roivant Sciences' provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.47 | |||
| Variance | 12.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.37 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.47 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Roivant Sciences
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Roivant Sciences can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Roivant Sciences Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Roivant Sciences can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 725.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.9 B |
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