Roivant Sciences Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ROIV Stock | USD 28.06 -0.49 -1.72% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.96 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter -0.33 | EPS Estimate Current Year -0.97 | EPS Estimate Next Year -1.03 | Wall Street Target Price 33.0909 |
The hype perspective for Roivant Sciences maps headline activity to recent price response and peer coverage. Sentiment context for Roivant Sciences is drawn from options positioning and short interest patterns.
Short Interest Overview for Roivant Sciences
When Roivant Sciences' short interest rises materially month-over-month, it suggests that more market participants are betting against Roivant Sciences. Monitoring the trend is essential for long holders.
200 Day MA 17.6698 | Short Percent 0.0433 | Short Ratio 3.51 | Shares Short Prior Month 22.3 M | 50 Day MA 25.0458 |
Roivant RSI Reading
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Roivant Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 29.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.73.Headline Hype vs Price - Roivant Sciences
Behavioral finance research confirms that investor sentiment drives Roivant Sciences' price in the short term. By quantifying that sentiment from news and social signals, investors can better time entries and exits in Roivant.
Roivant Sciences' investor sentiment is not always right, but it is always relevant. Understanding the current mood of the market toward Roivant Sciences helps investors assess whether current prices reflect greed, fear, or rational expectation.
Roivant Sciences Implied Volatility | 2.28 |
For option buyers, high Roivant Sciences' implied volatility means paying more for the right to profit from price movements in Roivant Sciences. For sellers, elevated implied volatility creates opportunities to collect richer premiums.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Roivant Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 29.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.73.Roivant Sciences after-hype prediction price | $ 27.99 |
Sentiment metrics here complement forecasting and technical views with analyst and earnings context.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Roivant Sciences can be used to cross-verify projections for Roivant Sciences. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 Overview for current Roivant contract - Volatility Context
Rule 16 applies implied volatility to estimate a daily move of roughly 0.14% across the 2026-03-20 option cycle. With Roivant Sciences trading near $ 28.06, that translates to about $ 0.04 per day in either direction.
Open Interest Snapshot: Roivant 2026-03-20 Options
Outstanding option contracts for Roivant Sciences are summarized through open interest, which highlights market participation.
Roivant Sciences Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Roivant price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Roivant using various technical indicators. When you analyze Roivant charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 16th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Roivant Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 29.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.21 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.73 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Roivant Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Roivant Sciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Roivant Sciences | Roivant Sciences Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Roivant Sciences uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Roivant Sciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Roivant Sciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9053 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.176 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0493 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 71.7348 |
The mean reversion principle applied to Roivant Sciences' suggests that neither prolonged outperformance nor underperformance is permanent. Investors exploit this by positioning against extremes in price relative to fundamental value.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Probability distributions applied to Roivant Sciences price forecasting provide a more honest representation of uncertainty than single point estimates. The shape of Roivant Sciences' distribution - whether it is symmetric, skewed, or fat-tailed - carries important information for risk.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
News-driven price analysis for Roivant Sciences quantifies the historical relationship between headline events and Roivant Sciences' short-term price response. Roivant Sciences' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.39 and 31.59, respectively. The strength of this signal depends on the consistency of Roivant Sciences's past reactions to comparable news categories.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Roivant Sciences assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Roivant Sciences is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Roivant Sciences backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Roivant Sciences, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 3.57 | 0.07 | 0.51 | 11 Events | 8 Events | In 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
28.06 | 27.99 | 0.25 |
|
Hype Timeline
Roivant Sciences is at this time traded for 28.06. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.51. Roivant is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 27.99. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.25%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.46%. The volatility of related hype on Roivant Sciences is about 319.61%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.57. About 23.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Roivant Sciences was at this time reported as 6.02. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.17. Roivant Sciences had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 11 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Roivant Sciences can be used to cross-verify projections for Roivant Sciences. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
When a direct competitor of Roivant Sciences experiences a significant news event, the market often re-rates Roivant Sciences' shares in sympathy or in contrast, depending on whether the news affects the sector broadly or competitively.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SMMT | Summit Therapeutics PLC | -0.52 | 12 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 5.00 | -5.97 | 20.41 | |
| BBIO | BridgeBio Pharma | 1.14 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.002 | 4.65 | -4.34 | 19.89 | |
| RVMD | Revolution Medicines | -2.66 | 10 per month | 3.00 | 0.08 | 4.46 | -2.81 | 45.50 | |
| ASND | Ascendis Pharma AS | -0.08 | 26 per month | 2.46 | 0.08 | 4.72 | -4.38 | 12.38 | |
| IONS | Ionis Pharmaceuticals | 2.49 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.08 | 2.50 | -3.28 | 9.17 | |
| EXAS | EXACT Sciences | 2.42 | 12 per month | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.35 | -0.23 | 0.83 | |
| RNA | Atrium Therapeutics Common | 0.11 | 12 per month | 0.00 | -0.12 | 0.89 | -1.76 | 80.12 | |
| RPRX | Royalty Pharma Plc | 0.24 | 19 per month | 0.91 | 0.26 | 2.01 | -1.51 | 6.42 | |
| JAZZ | Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC | 5.34 | 8 per month | 2.00 | 0.06 | 1.85 | -3.95 | 17.22 | |
| MRNA | Moderna | 2.69 | 9 per month | 3.22 | 0.22 | 10.85 | -5.95 | 23.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Roivant Sciences
Regardless of investment experience, understanding Roivant Sciences' price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in Roivant. Price charts for Roivant Stock are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.Roivant Sciences Related Equities
The following equities are related to Roivant Sciences within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Roivant Sciences against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Roivant Sciences Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Roivant Sciences give investors insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators helps investors make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading Roivant Sciences is likely to be most rewarding.
Roivant Sciences Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Roivant Sciences' risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis helps investors determine the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Roivant Sciences'.
| Mean Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.56 | |||
| Variance | 12.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.73 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Roivant Sciences
Coverage intensity for Roivant Sciences matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Roivant Sciences Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Roivant Sciences matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 725.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.9 B |
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