Royal Gold Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| RGLD Stock | USD 215.21 -9.86 -4.38% |
This reference view applies Triple Exponential Smoothing to Royal Gold's historical closing prices. Royal Gold's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data. Royal Gold's forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. Mean absolute deviation and related metrics help quantify forecast uncertainty for Royal Gold.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Royal Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 215.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 379.35.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Royal Gold observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Royal Gold observations. All forecast values on this page for Royal Gold are Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Royal Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 215.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.43 , mean absolute percentage error of 75.19 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 379.35 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Royal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Royal Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Royal Gold uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 211.91 and upside around 218.29 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Royal Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Royal Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1849 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.4297 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0243 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 379.35 |
Other Forecasting Options for Royal Gold
Volume-weighted price analysis for Royal Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in Royal momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing Royal Gold's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in Royal Stock price action.Royal Gold Related Equities
These stocks within the Materials space are often compared to Royal Gold by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Checking Royal Gold against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Royal Gold Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of Royal Gold stock allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Royal Gold. These metrics are particularly useful when Royal Gold stock shows divergence from broader market trends. Regularly reviewing Royal Gold strength signals helps maintain a structured approach to position management.
Royal Gold Risk Indicators
Understanding Royal Gold's risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Royal Gold's investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure. Reviewing Royal Gold's basic risk indicators is essential for managing investment risk effectively. The risk-return trade-off for royal stock becomes clearer when Royal Gold's risk indicators are properly assessed.
| Mean Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.1 | |||
| Variance | 9.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Royal Gold
Coverage intensity for Royal Gold matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Royal Gold Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Royal Gold is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 233.7 M |