Royal Gold Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| RGLD Stock | USD 215.21 -9.86 -4.38% |
The Simple Regression reference data for Royal Gold is derived from the equity's published trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Royal Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 278.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,125.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Royal Gold historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. All forecast values on this page for Royal Gold are Simple Regression reference data derived from historical price series. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Royal Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 278.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.15 , mean absolute percentage error of 520.75 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,125 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Royal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Royal Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Royal Gold's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 275.35 and upside around 281.75 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Royal Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Royal Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 126.2036 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 18.1478 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0709 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1125.1615 |
Other Forecasting Options for Royal Gold
For both new and experienced investors in Royal, the ability to analyze Royal Gold's price movement is a fundamental investment skill. Price chart noise in Royal Stock can create false signals and mislead investment decisions.Royal Gold Related Equities
The following equities are related to Royal Gold within the Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Royal Gold against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Royal Gold Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for Royal Gold provides context for understanding the momentum dynamics of the stock in real time. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions in Royal Gold for maximum return potential.
| Accumulation Distribution | 318675.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.81 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 219.88 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 218.32 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -9.60 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -9.86 |
Royal Gold Risk Indicators
Properly assessing Royal Gold's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with Royal Gold's allows investors to make better-informed decisions about accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.1 | |||
| Variance | 9.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Royal Gold
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Royal Gold can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Royal Gold Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Royal Gold is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 233.7 M |