Replimune Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| REPL Stock | USD 7.14 -0.44 -5.80% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter -0.84 | EPS Estimate Current Year -3.16 | EPS Estimate Next Year -2.01 | Wall Street Target Price 12.8571 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter -0.82 |
This section summarizes Replimune Group headline activity and related price response context. Options and short interest metrics are combined here to describe sentiment for Replimune.
Short Interest Activity for Replimune
Short sellers in Replimune profit when Replimune's stock falls below their entry price. Monitoring short interest helps long investors understand the magnitude of selling pressure they face.
200 Day MA 7.7667 | Short Percent 0.3445 | Short Ratio 13.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 15.5 M | 50 Day MA 7.7977 |
RSI Momentum View - Replimune
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Replimune Group on the next trading day is expected to be 7.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.82.Hype and Price Context: Replimune Group
When Replimune's news sentiment peaks, stock prices often follow with a lag. Similarly, sentiment troughs can mark price bottoms if fundamental business quality remains intact.
Tracking how Replimune's sentiment evolves after major announcements helps investors assess whether the market's reaction was proportionate or whether an over-correction created a new entry opportunity in Replimune.
Replimune Implied Volatility | 2.56 |
The implied volatility skew for Replimune options - the difference in implied volatility between puts and calls at different strikes - reveals the market's asymmetric fear of downside versus upside moves in Replimune's stock.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Replimune Group on the next trading day is expected to be 7.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.82.Replimune after-hype prediction price | $ 6.77 |
This module presents attention signals alongside forecasting, technical analysis, analyst consensus, and earnings.
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Rule 16 Reference for the current Replimune contract - Pricing Context
Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-05-15 options is about 0.16%. This estimate is a volatility reference; at $ 7.14, it implies a move of about $ 0.0114 per day.
Open Interest Distribution for Replimune 2026-05-15 Options
Active contract counts for Replimune are shown through open interest, offering positioning and liquidity context.
Replimune Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Replimune price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Replimune using various technical indicators. When you analyze Replimune charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Replimune Group on the next trading day is expected to be 7.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.18 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.82 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Replimune Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Replimune's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Replimune | Replimune Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Replimune Group uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Replimune stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Replimune stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.7353 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0636 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3358 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0423 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.815 |
The mean reversion framework for Replimune is built on the premise that markets are not perfectly efficient and that prices periodically overshoot their intrinsic value in both directions.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Visualizing the full distribution of potential Replimune outcomes discourages binary thinking about investments. Rather than asking whether Replimune's price will go up or down, the distribution approach asks: what is the range of outcomes and how probable is each?
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The news-based price prediction model for Replimune is transparent: it measures how Replimune's has historically reacted to news, not how it will theoretically behave. Replimune's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.13 and 11.41, respectively. Investors should use this model as one input among many when evaluating Replimune ahead of anticipated news.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Replimune Group assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Replimune is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Replimune backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Replimune, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.43 | 4.64 | 0.37 | 0.04 | 6 Events | 6 Events | In 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.14 | 6.77 | 5.18 |
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Hype Timeline
Replimune Group is at this time traded for 7.14. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.37, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Replimune is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.77. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -5.18%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.43%. The volatility of related hype on Replimune is about 4734.69%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.18. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Replimune was at this time reported as 2.64. The company recorded a loss per share of 3.44. Replimune Group had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 6 days. Cross-verify projections for Replimune using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Replimune. The historical view provides additional context.Related Hype Analysis
The peer hype analysis for Replimune identifies which competitors tend to lead the sector in their news reactions. These leading indicators provide early signals about the direction of Replimune's upcoming performance.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DNA | Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings | -1.26 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.04 | 8.31 | -6.36 | 51.88 | |
| MBX | MBX Biosciences Common | 2.30 | 8 per month | 0.00 | 0.0032 | 13.41 | -7.57 | 29.11 | |
| IOVA | Iovance Biotherapeutics | -0.01 | 9 per month | 4.35 | 0.16 | 12.01 | -7.58 | 46.70 | |
| AVBP | ArriVent BioPharma Common | -0.49 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 6.71 | -4.93 | 18.15 | |
| MGTX | MeiraGTx Holdings PLC | -0.03 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 5.08 | -5.67 | 16.37 | |
| PRME | Prime Medicine Common | -0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 9.19 | -7.42 | 25.94 | |
| VALN | Valneva SE ADR | 0.12 | 2 per month | 3.03 | 0.1 | 6.85 | -5.31 | 16.68 | |
| VIR | Vir Biotechnology | 0.18 | 6 per month | 3.29 | 0.13 | 7.30 | -5.25 | 34.53 | |
| ARVN | Arvinas | 0.10 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 5.25 | -3.75 | 15.46 | |
| ATXS | Astria Therapeutics | 0.08 | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 2.15 | -1.67 | 6.54 |
Other Forecasting Options for Replimune
Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether Replimune is a viable investment for any investor. Replimune Stock price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.Replimune Related Equities
The following equities are related to Replimune within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Replimune against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Replimune Market Strength Events
Assessing the market strength of Replimune stock provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading Replimune Group is most likely to be profitable.
Replimune Risk Indicators
The analysis of Replimune's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Replimune's helps investors choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 3.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.58 | |||
| Variance | 20.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Replimune
Coverage intensity for Replimune Group matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Replimune Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Replimune Group matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 80.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 483.8 M |
More Resources for Replimune Stock Analysis
Reviewing Replimune Group commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Replimune Group Stock. Below are reports that help frame Replimune Group Stock in context:Cross-verify projections for Replimune using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Replimune. The historical view provides additional context. Analysis related to Replimune should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Investors evaluate Replimune Group using market value and book value, each describing different facets of the business. Replimune's market capitalization is 589.57 M. A P/B ratio of 2.8 indicates the market values Replimune above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 397.6 M. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
The concept of value for Replimune differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Replimune, key inputs include a P/B ratio of 2.8, and ROE of -90.88%. By contrast, market price reflects the level where buyers and sellers transact.