T Rowe Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| PRFSX Fund | USD 5.53 -0.02 -0.36% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for T Rowe is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 5.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0042 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.25.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past T Rowe observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older T Rowe Price observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for T Rowe presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 5.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0042 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.00004 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.25 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PRFSX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T Rowe's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest T Rowe | T Rowe Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for T Rowe Price focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 5.41 on the downside to about 5.64 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T Rowe mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T Rowe mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 5.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0042 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 7.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.2452 |
Other Forecasting Options for T Rowe
The distribution of T Rowe's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in T Rowe's chart that simple price charts miss.T Rowe Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Muni National Short space can help frame T Rowe's pricing and running costs in context. Checking T Rowe against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T Rowe Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for T Rowe give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in T Rowe Price.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.53 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.37 |
T Rowe Risk Indicators
A thorough review of T Rowe's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in T Rowe's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0572 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1091 | |||
| Variance | 0.0119 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0582 | |||
| Semi Variance | -0.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T Rowe
Coverage intensity for T Rowe Price matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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