T Rowe Price Fund Manager Performance Evaluation

PRFSX Fund  USD 5.56  0.01  0.18%   
The fund maintains a market beta of 0.0217, which implies relatively modest fluctuations relative to the market. Returns on T ROWE tend to trail the broader market in strong rallies but hold up better when sentiment turns negative.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Balanced
 
Weak
 
Strong
On a recent 90-day basis, T Rowe Price sits below 14% of comparable funds and fund portfolios in risk-adjusted performance. This score becomes more useful when investors compare it with downside risk, Sharpe Ratio, and current trend stability. Despite somewhat strong basic indicators, T ROWE is not utilizing all of its potential. The newest price disturbance may contribute to short-term losses for investors. Learn More
Expense Ratio Date1st of May 2025
Expense Ratio0.3800
  

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 549.00 in T Rowe Price on December 17, 2025 and sold it today you would have earned a total of $ 6.00 from holding T Rowe Price or generated 1.09% return on investment over 90 days. T Rowe Price is currently producing a 0.0182% return and carries 0.0981% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 0% of traded mutual funds are less volatile than PRFSX, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This market-relative note looks at return potential and the amount of risk required to get it. It highlights whether the current reward profile compensates for the level of uncertainty assumed. Assuming a 90-day horizon T ROWE is expected to generate 0.12 times more return on investment than the market. However, the fund is 8.1 times less risky than the market. It trades about 0.19 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.03 per unit of risk.

Historical Prices of T Rowe Price

Below is the normalized historical share price chart for T Rowe Price extending back to March 14, 1984. This chart has been adjusted for all splits and dividends and is plotted against all major global economic recessions. As of today, the current price of T ROWE stands at 5.56, as last reported on the 17th of March 2026, with the highest price reaching 5.56 and the lowest price hitting 5.56 during the day.
Macro event markers
 
Black Monday
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

For PRFSX Mutual Fund, the observed tendency of price to return to a central value is a key input to forecasting models. This mean reversion pattern, however, does not apply uniformly - some funds remain mispriced for extended periods, suggesting that embedded risk premiums affect the speed of correction.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
5.56 90 days 5.56
about 27.82
According to a normal distribution model, the odds of T ROWE moving above the current price in 90 days from now are about 27.82 (The density curve for T Rowe Price shows where PRFSX Mutual Fund price is most likely to settle within 90 days).
Assuming a 90-day horizon T ROWE has a beta of 0.0217 indicating as returns on the market go up, T ROWE's average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during a bear market, the loss from holding T Rowe Price is expected to be smaller as well. Additionally, T Rowe Price has an alpha of 0.0074, implying that it can generate a 0.0074 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   T ROWE Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for T ROWE

A wide range of forecasting techniques can be applied to T Rowe Price and the broader fund market. While market prediction remains inherently uncertain, combining multiple approaches and evaluating their results is one of the most effective ways to improve the quality of investment decisions.
Mean reversion in T ROWE is more reliable over longer time horizons. Short-term deviations can persist and even widen before correcting, making position sizing and risk management critical.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.455.555.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.455.555.65
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
5.445.545.63
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.555.575.60
Details
Effective investment decisions about T ROWE require competitive context. Benchmarking T ROWE's against peers on earnings quality, growth consistency, and balance sheet strength can materially change the investment conclusion.

Primary Risk Indicators

The mutual fund market's recent history has been defined by volatility, with multiple large corrections and rallies in the last 10-20 years. T ROWE has participated in these swings. Investors holding T Rowe Price can protect their portfolios by monitoring T ROWE's risk indicators and implementing appropriate hedging strategies.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.01
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.02
σ
Overall volatility
0.03
Ir
Information ratio 0.51

Investor Alerts and Insights

Investors in T ROWE benefit from automated alerts that flag material fund changes as they occur. T Rowe Price notifications cover technical signals, fundamental shifts, and notable headlines that may impact investment timing.
The fund maintains about 98.7% of its assets in bonds

T ROWE Fundamentals Growth

The market prices PRFSX Mutual Fund according to T ROWE's ability to generate revenue growth, maintain healthy margins, and manage debt effectively. These fundamental drivers have a direct and measurable impact on PRFSX Mutual Fund performance.
Total Asset624.83 M

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

T ROWE performance is typically evaluated through NAV-based returns relative to category peers and stated objectives. Liquidity conditions can influence realized performance through spreads and execution cost.

The analytics block for T Rowe Price relies on fund disclosures and market reference feeds, with quality checks and normalization applied before rendering. Timing can vary by data vendor. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Rifka Kats - Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Last reviewed on March 1st, 2026