T Rowe Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PRASX Fund | USD 21.16 -0.59 -2.71% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for T Rowe is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 21.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.93.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting T Rowe Price forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent T Rowe observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for T Rowe presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 21.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.1 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.93 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PRASX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T Rowe's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates T Rowe's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T Rowe mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T Rowe mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9227 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0062 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2155 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0097 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.93 |
Other Forecasting Options for T Rowe
The distribution of T Rowe's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in T Rowe's chart that simple price charts miss.T Rowe Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of T Rowe within the Pacific/Asia ex-Japan Stk space and offer context for ranking and strength. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how T Rowe's capital structure stacks up against similar firms.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T Rowe Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for T Rowe give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in T Rowe Price.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.16 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.29 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.59 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.0 |
T Rowe Risk Indicators
A thorough review of T Rowe's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in T Rowe's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9322 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.97 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T Rowe
A coverage review of T Rowe Price shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.