PRA Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average

PRAA Stock  USD 16.73  -0.13  -0.77%   
As of today, the relative strength indicator for PRA stands at 57, indicating neutral momentum. Values near 50 generally reflect equilibrium between upward and downward pressure.
Momentum
Buy Extended
 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of PRA's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with PRA Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Fundamental factors used to frame PRA's forecast:
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.113
 EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.585
 EPS Estimate Current Year
2.345
 EPS Estimate Next Year
2.965
 Wall Street Target Price
26
The hype-based view summarizes PRA's price response to recent headlines and peer coverage.

PRA RSI Profile

The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of PRA Group on the next trading day is expected to be 16.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.40.

PRA Group Sentiment-to-Price Pattern

Investor biases related to PRA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in PRA. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding PRA can time the market purely based on public headlines and social.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of PRA's market sentiment to its price can help traders make decisions based on the overall investor consensus about PRA.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of PRA Group on the next trading day is expected to be 16.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.40.
PRA after-hype prediction price
    
  $ 16.73  
This sentiment summary adds context across forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings perspectives for the stock.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of PRA provides a cross-check on projections for PRA. The historical view provides additional context.

PRA Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine PRA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PRA using various technical indicators. When you analyze PRA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for PRA is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of March 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of PRA Group on the next trading day is expected to be 16.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.80 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.40 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PRA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PRA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest PRA  PRA Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for PRA Group uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 11.64 and upside around 21.82 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
16.73
16.73
Expected Value
21.82
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PRA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PRA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.2168
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0031
MADMean absolute deviation0.5492
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0381
SAESum of the absolute errors32.4
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of PRA Group price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of PRA. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PRA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.6416.7321.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.0913.1818.27
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
7.9414.2420.54
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
23.6626.0028.86
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PRA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PRA's peers to derive any actionable benefits.

After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of PRA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting PRA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PRA's historical news coverage.
Current Value
16.73
16.73
After-hype Price
21.82
Upside
This after-hype projection for PRA Group uses a 3 months horizon to examine how price may behave after short-term sentiment effects dissipate. The objective is to separate event-driven enthusiasm from a more stable price path once the market absorbs the catalyst.

Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PRA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PRA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PRA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.13 
5.09
  0.10 
  0.03 
6 Events
7 Events
In 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
16.73
16.73
0.00 
687.84  
Notes

Hype Timeline

PRA Group is at this time traded for 16.73. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. PRA is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on PRA is about 1983.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.76. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.66. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. PRA Group recorded a loss per share of 7.79. The company had its last dividend issued on the 7th of May 2007. The firm completed a 3:1 stock split on 2nd of August 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 6 days.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of PRA provides a cross-check on projections for PRA. The historical view provides additional context.

Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to PRA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PRA's future price movements. Getting to know how PRA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
DGICADonegal Group A-0.32 5 per month 0.00 -0.10 1.56 -2.79 7.79
ACICAmerican Coastal Insurance-0.03 8 per month 1.76 0.04 2.32 -2.92 7.60
GAINGladstone Investment-0.10 10 per month 0.84 0.08 1.77 -1.29 4.62
MSBIMidland States Bancorp 0.02 11 per month 1.76 0.07 2.87 -3.18 11.46
FUFUBitFuFu Class A-0.22 7 per month 0.00 -0.02 7.26 -8.73 31.32
NPBNorthpointe Bancshares 0.01 9 per month 1.79 0.03 3.68 -2.85 8.26
GAMGeneral American Investors 0.90 8 per month 0.65 0.07 0.98 -1.05 2.91
GDOTGreen Dot 0.20 8 per month 0.00 -0.18 1.60 -2.28 7.04
BWBBridgewater Bancshares 1.85 16 per month 0.00 -0.01 2.67 -3.41 9.97

Other Forecasting Options for PRA

For every potential investor in PRA, whether a beginner or expert, PRA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.

PRA Related Equities

The following equities are related to PRA within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing PRA against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PRA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PRA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PRA shares will generate the highest return on.

PRA Risk Indicators

The analysis of PRA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PRA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for PRA

A coverage review of PRA Group helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.

PRA Short Properties

A short-interest review of PRA Group helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding39.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments104.4 M

More Resources for PRA Stock Analysis

Understanding PRA Group typically begins with financial statements and long-term trend review. Ratio analysis helps investors evaluate PRA Group Stock operating efficiency and financial trajectory. Highlighted below are reports that provide context for PRA Group Stock:
Historical Fundamental Analysis of PRA provides a cross-check on projections for PRA. The historical view provides additional context.
PRA at P/E 10.4 and ROE -25.97% (652.73 Million market cap) - this analysis works best as a complementary layer when evaluating how the position fits in a broader portfolio. Within the Financial Services space, these metrics give the peer comparison tools below a concrete starting point for relative analysis. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.113
 Earnings Share
-7.79
 Revenue Per Share
30.68
 Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.137
 Return On Assets
0.0478
PRA Group's market price can diverge from book value, the accounting figure shown on PRA's balance sheet. PRA's market capitalization is 652.73 M. A P/B ratio of 0.66 suggests PRA trades near or below book value. Enterprise value stands at 4.2 B. Intrinsic value reflects what PRA's fundamentals imply about worth, which may differ from both the trading price and the book figure. Analytical frameworks help reconcile those views.
Note that PRA's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. For PRA, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 10.4, a P/B ratio of 0.66, a profit margin of -25.39%, and ROE of -25.97%. PRA's market quotation reflects the latest level where a willing buyer met a willing seller.