PACIFIC FUNDS Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

POCEX Fund  USD 13.22  -0.22  -1.64%   
PACIFIC FUNDS's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pacific Funds Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 13.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.22.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past PACIFIC FUNDS observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Pacific Funds Portfolio observations. PACIFIC FUNDS's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Triple exponential smoothing for PACIFIC FUNDS - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When PACIFIC FUNDS prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in PACIFIC FUNDS price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Pacific Funds Portfolio.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pacific Funds Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 13.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.22 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PACIFIC Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PACIFIC FUNDS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest PACIFIC FUNDS  PACIFIC FUNDS Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Pacific Funds Portfolio uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 12.38 and upside near 14.02.
Market Value
13.22
13.20
Expected Value
14.02
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PACIFIC FUNDS mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PACIFIC FUNDS mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -6.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation0.0871
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0063
SAESum of the absolute errors5.2231
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past PACIFIC FUNDS observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Pacific Funds Portfolio observations.

Other Forecasting Options for PACIFIC FUNDS

Analyzing PACIFIC FUNDS's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in PACIFIC FUNDS's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.

PACIFIC FUNDS Related Equities

Investors studying PACIFIC FUNDS often look at related stocks within the Allocation--85%+ Equity space to gauge pricing and results. Profit comparisons show whether PACIFIC FUNDS earns above or below average returns next to its peers. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PACIFIC FUNDS Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for PACIFIC FUNDS mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade PACIFIC FUNDS.

PACIFIC FUNDS Risk Indicators

Assessing PACIFIC FUNDS's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting PACIFIC FUNDS's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for PACIFIC FUNDS

Story coverage around Pacific Funds Portfolio often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.