Pliant Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| PLRX Stock | USD 1.29 -0.04 -3.01% |
The reference data on this page reflects Triple Exponential Smoothing output applied to Pliant Therapeutics's historical daily closing prices. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pliant Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 1.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.86.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Pliant Therapeutics observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Pliant Therapeutics observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Pliant Therapeutics reflects Triple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pliant Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 1.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0016 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.86 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pliant Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pliant Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Pliant Therapeutics uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 0.01 and upside around 4.36 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pliant Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pliant Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0038 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.031 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0246 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.8598 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pliant Therapeutics
Understanding Pliant Therapeutics' price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering Pliant as a position. Pliant Stock price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.Pliant Therapeutics Related Equities
The following equities are related to Pliant Therapeutics within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Pliant Therapeutics against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pliant Therapeutics Market Strength Events
For traders and investors in Pliant Therapeutics, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the stock's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading Pliant Therapeutics shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 20001.79 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.67 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.3 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.3 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.04 |
Pliant Therapeutics Risk Indicators
Analyzing Pliant Therapeutics' risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Pliant Therapeutics' investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 2.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.98 | |||
| Variance | 8.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.65 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pliant Therapeutics
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Pliant Therapeutics can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Pliant Therapeutics Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Pliant Therapeutics is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 190.9 M |