Pliant Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

PLRX Stock  USD 1.40  0.00  0.00%   
The hype cycle around Pliant Therapeutics can be quantified and compared to historical sentiment baselines. This module uses that comparison to generate price predictions that reflect the sentiment component of market value.
In the current reporting cycle, momentum metrics show the 14-period RSI of 61 for Pliant Therapeutics, indicating sustained upward pressure. This range suggests continued bullish bias without reaching extreme statistical levels.
Momentum
Sell Extended
 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The hype cycle around Pliant Therapeutics can be quantified and compared to historical sentiment baselines. This module uses that comparison to generate price predictions that reflect the sentiment component of market value. Fundamental factors used to frame Pliant Therapeutics' forecast:
 EPS Estimate Next Quarter
-0.43
 EPS Estimate Current Year
-2.43
 EPS Estimate Next Year
-1.87
 Wall Street Target Price
3
 EPS Estimate Current Quarter
-0.38
This view relates Pliant Therapeutics' headline activity to recent price response context. Options and short interest provide context for sentiment around Pliant Therapeutics in this section.
For a complete overview, review Current Ratio and Net Debt To E B I T D A.
Pliant Therapeutics Implied Volatility
    
  2.05  
Implied volatility in Pliant Therapeutics' options does not predict direction - it measures magnitude. An investor expecting a large move in Pliant Therapeutics stock in either direction may benefit from strategies that profit from volatility expansion.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pliant Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 1.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.56.
Pliant Therapeutics after-hype prediction price
    
  $ 1.41  
The sentiment view is a companion to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
Cross-verify projections for Pliant Therapeutics using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pliant Therapeutics. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.
Our How to Buy Pliant Stock guide explains the steps to invest in Pliant Therapeutics stock.

Rule 16 Reference for the current Pliant contract - Performance Context

Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-04-17 options is about 0.13%. This context is informational: with Pliant Therapeutics near $ 1.4, the daily move estimate is $ 0.001794 .

Open Interest Map for Pliant Options 2026-04-17

The open interest measure summarizes active contracts for Pliant Therapeutics and can be paired with trend context.

Pliant Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Pliant price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pliant using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pliant charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Pliant Therapeutics works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Pliant Therapeutics Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of March 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pliant Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 1.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0012 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.56 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pliant Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pliant Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pliant Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Pliant Therapeutics  Pliant Therapeutics Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Pliant Therapeutics Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Pliant Therapeutics uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
1.40
1.41
Expected Value
4.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pliant Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pliant Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0074
MADMean absolute deviation0.0264
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0213
SAESum of the absolute errors1.555
When Pliant Therapeutics prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Pliant Therapeutics trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Pliant Therapeutics observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.
Experienced Pliant Therapeutics' investors use mean reversion as a complement to momentum analysis: momentum identifies the trend; mean reversion identifies when that trend has extended beyond sustainable levels.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.071.414.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.091.734.48
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
2.733.003.33
Details
The most actionable insights from Pliant Therapeutics analysis often emerge from peer comparison rather than standalone review. Pliant Therapeutics' metrics gain meaning when benchmarked against the best and worst performers in its sector.

Pliant Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis

This probability distribution for Pliant Therapeutics is built from Monte Carlo simulations that incorporate Pliant Therapeutics' historical volatility, mean reversion tendencies, and jump risk. The resulting distribution captures a broader range of Pliant Therapeutics outcomes than simple linear.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Pliant Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

The boundaries derived from Pliant Therapeutics' historical news analysis represent the range within which Pliant Therapeutics's price has typically settled after comparable headline events. Pliant Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 4.16, respectively. Outcomes outside these boundaries are less common but not rare for Pliant Therapeutics.
Current Value
1.40
1.41
After-hype Price
4.16
Upside
The after-hype framework applied to Pliant Therapeutics assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.

Pliant Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pliant Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pliant Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pliant Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.24 
2.75
  0.01 
 0.00  
8 Events
7 Events
In 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1.40
1.41
0.71 
9,167  
Notes

Pliant Therapeutics Hype Timeline

Pliant Therapeutics is at this time traded for 1.40. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Pliant is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.41 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.71%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Pliant Therapeutics is about 25000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.40. Net Loss for the year was -149.34 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 8 days.
Cross-verify projections for Pliant Therapeutics using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pliant Therapeutics. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.
Our How to Buy Pliant Stock guide explains the steps to invest in Pliant Therapeutics stock.

Pliant Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis

Understanding Pliant Therapeutics' position within its competitive set helps investors assess whether news affecting a peer is a headwind or tailwind for Pliant Therapeutics. This distinction requires knowledge of the competitive dynamics specific to Pliant Therapeutics' industry.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ZNTLZentalis Pharmaceuticals Llc-0.35 13 per month 4.78 0.17 23.39 -9.97 49.29
STROSutro Biopharma 0.73 8 per month 3.71 0.29 11.87 -7.36 29.02
ARTVArtiva Biotherapeutics Common 0.10 7 per month 6.20 0.12 8.35 -7.84 118.69
ADVMAdverum Biotechnologies-0.02 18 per month 3.70 0.08 10.34 -6.79 40.97
CLNNClene Inc-0.24 9 per month 0.00 -0.0022 9.54 -7.83 29.66
MGNXMacroGenics-0.07 13 per month 1.70 0.23 9.47 -4.46 24.44
WHWKWhitehawk Therapeutics 0.14 6 per month 3.15 0.19 7.53 -5.32 15.69
OVIDOvid Therapeutics-0.07 7 per month 4.22 0.1 10.12 -5.68 36.13
COYACoya Therapeutics Common 0.17 4 per month 0.00 -0.06 4.70 -5.27 17.84
GUTSFractyl Health Common-0.28 8 per month 0.00 -0.14 7.69 -8.44 79.65

Other Forecasting Options for Pliant Therapeutics

Understanding Pliant Therapeutics' price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering Pliant as a position. Pliant Stock price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.

Pliant Therapeutics Related Equities

The following equities are related to Pliant Therapeutics within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Pliant Therapeutics against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Pliant Therapeutics Market Strength Events

For traders and investors in Pliant Therapeutics, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the stock's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading Pliant Therapeutics shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.

Pliant Therapeutics Risk Indicators

Analyzing Pliant Therapeutics' risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Pliant Therapeutics' investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Pliant Therapeutics

Coverage intensity for Pliant Therapeutics matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Pliant Therapeutics Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Pliant Therapeutics matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding61.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments190.9 M

More Resources for Pliant Stock Analysis

Reviewing Pliant Therapeutics commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Financial ratios provide context for profitability, efficiency, and growth trends. Selected reports below provide context for Pliant Stock:
Cross-verify projections for Pliant Therapeutics using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pliant Therapeutics. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.
Our How to Buy Pliant Stock guide explains the steps to invest in Pliant Therapeutics stock.
Analysis related to Pliant Therapeutics should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
 Earnings Share
-2.86
 Quarterly Revenue Growth
-1.00
 Return On Assets
-0.33
 Return On Equity
-0.64
Understanding Pliant Therapeutics includes distinguishing between market value and book value, where book value reflects Pliant accounting equity. Pliant Therapeutics' market capitalization is 81.73 M. A P/B ratio of 0.41 suggests Pliant Therapeutics trades near or below book value. Intrinsic value is an estimate of underlying worth, separate from trading price and book value. The valuation process compares these measures for perspective.
The concept of value for Pliant Therapeutics differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Pliant Therapeutics, key inputs include a P/B ratio of 0.41, and ROE of -64.27%. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.