Pila Pharma Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PILA Stock   1.25  0.03  2.46%   
Pila Pharma AB's Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. This page presents the model output and associated accuracy measures as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pila Pharma AB on the next trading day is expected to be 1.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.83.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Pila Pharma observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Pila Pharma AB observations. The Triple Exponential Smoothing projections for Pila Pharma AB are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context.
Triple exponential smoothing for Pila Pharma - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Pila Pharma prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Pila Pharma price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Pila Pharma AB.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pila Pharma AB on the next trading day is expected to be 1.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.83 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pila Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pila Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Pila Pharma AB focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Market Value
1.25
1.21
Expected Value
8.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pila Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pila Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0245
MADMean absolute deviation0.0805
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0542
SAESum of the absolute errors4.83
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Pila Pharma observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Pila Pharma AB observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Pila Pharma

The price trajectory of Pila is the primary concern for any investor assessing it as an opportunity. Pila Stock price charts are filled with noise that can easily mislead uninformed investment decisions.

Pila Pharma Related Equities

The following equities are related to Pila Pharma within the Biotechnology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Pila Pharma against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Pila Pharma Market Strength Events

Understanding the market strength of Pila Pharma stock enables investors to assess the security's momentum and responsiveness to broader market forces. These indicators are essential tools for timing trades in Pila Pharma AB with greater precision.

Pila Pharma Risk Indicators

Reviewing Pila Pharma's basic risk indicators is essential for investors who want to forecast its price and manage their investment risk effectively. This analysis helps identify the amount of risk involved in holding Pila Pharma's and informs decisions about hedging and position.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Pila Pharma

Story coverage around Pila Pharma AB often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.

Pila Pharma Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Pila Pharma AB can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding31.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments28.2 M

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