Pila Pharma Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PILA Stock | 1.14 -0.11 -8.80% |
Pila Pharma AB's Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. This page presents the model output and associated accuracy measures as reference information.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pila Pharma AB on the next trading day is expected to be 1.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.64.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Pila Pharma AB forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Pila Pharma observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing projections for Pila Pharma AB are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pila Pharma AB on the next trading day is expected to be 1.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.64 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pila Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pila Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pila Pharma | Pila Pharma Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Pila Pharma AB focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pila Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pila Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0716 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.017 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0761 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0513 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pila Pharma
The price trajectory of Pila is the primary concern for any investor assessing it as an opportunity. Pila Stock price charts are filled with noise that can easily mislead uninformed investment decisions.Pila Pharma Related Equities
The following equities are related to Pila Pharma within the Biotechnology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Pila Pharma against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pila Pharma Market Strength Events
Understanding the market strength of Pila Pharma stock enables investors to assess the security's momentum and responsiveness to broader market forces. These indicators are essential tools for timing trades in Pila Pharma AB with greater precision.
Pila Pharma Risk Indicators
Reviewing Pila Pharma's basic risk indicators is essential for investors who want to forecast its price and manage their investment risk effectively. This analysis helps identify the amount of risk involved in holding Pila Pharma's and informs decisions about hedging and position.
| Mean Deviation | 4.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.79 | |||
| Variance | 46.11 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pila Pharma
Story coverage around Pila Pharma AB often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.
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Pila Pharma Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Pila Pharma AB can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 28.2 M |
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