PEDEVCO Corp Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PED Stock | USD 0.58 0.02 3.57% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PEDEVCO Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.98. PEDEVCO Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast PEDEVCO Corp stock prices and determine the direction of PEDEVCO Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of PEDEVCO Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of relative strength index of PEDEVCO Corp's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.01 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.03) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.06) | Wall Street Target Price 0.85 |
Using PEDEVCO Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PEDEVCO Corp from the perspective of PEDEVCO Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PEDEVCO Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.98. PEDEVCO Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 0.58 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PEDEVCO Corp to cross-verify your projections. PEDEVCO Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PEDEVCO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PEDEVCO using various technical indicators. When you analyze PEDEVCO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PEDEVCO Corp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PEDEVCO Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0005, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PEDEVCO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PEDEVCO Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PEDEVCO Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PEDEVCO Corp | PEDEVCO Corp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
PEDEVCO Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PEDEVCO Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PEDEVCO Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.30, respectively. We have considered PEDEVCO Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PEDEVCO Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PEDEVCO Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0022 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0166 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0306 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.98 |
Predictive Modules for PEDEVCO Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PEDEVCO Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PEDEVCO Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
PEDEVCO Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PEDEVCO Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PEDEVCO Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PEDEVCO Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PEDEVCO Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PEDEVCO Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PEDEVCO Corp's historical news coverage. PEDEVCO Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 4.30, respectively. We have considered PEDEVCO Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PEDEVCO Corp is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PEDEVCO Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
PEDEVCO Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PEDEVCO Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PEDEVCO Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PEDEVCO Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 3.72 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.58 | 0.58 | 0.00 |
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PEDEVCO Corp Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January PEDEVCO Corp is traded for 0.58. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. PEDEVCO is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on PEDEVCO Corp is about 3444.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.57. About 69.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.48. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. PEDEVCO Corp last dividend was issued on the 10th of April 2017. The entity had 1:10 split on the 10th of April 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PEDEVCO Corp to cross-verify your projections.PEDEVCO Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PEDEVCO Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PEDEVCO Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how PEDEVCO Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PEDEVCO Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| USEG | US Energy Corp | (0.36) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.03 | (5.05) | 13.11 | |
| INDO | Indonesia Energy | (0.36) | 7 per month | 3.42 | 0.15 | 9.11 | (4.67) | 29.54 | |
| SPRU | Spruce Power Holding | (0.36) | 15 per month | 5.23 | 0.17 | 13.68 | (5.98) | 81.84 | |
| RCON | Recon Technology | 0.03 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.25 | (6.10) | 19.42 | |
| BEEM | Beam Global | 0.1 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 7.74 | (7.61) | 19.76 | |
| VVPR | VivoPower International PLC | 0.21 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 11.84 | (11.56) | 43.30 | |
| DWSN | Dawson Geophysical | 0.03 | 1 per month | 3.18 | 0.09 | 8.21 | (5.29) | 20.72 | |
| SMXT | Solarmax Technology Common | (0.36) | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 8.64 | (8.97) | 29.70 | |
| BATL | Battalion Oil Corp | (0.02) | 4 per month | 3.01 | 0.06 | 7.62 | (6.67) | 23.38 | |
| MAXN | Maxeon Solar Technologies | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.76 | (6.48) | 19.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for PEDEVCO Corp
For every potential investor in PEDEVCO, whether a beginner or expert, PEDEVCO Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PEDEVCO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PEDEVCO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PEDEVCO Corp's price trends.PEDEVCO Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PEDEVCO Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PEDEVCO Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PEDEVCO Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PEDEVCO Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PEDEVCO Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PEDEVCO Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PEDEVCO Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PEDEVCO Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
PEDEVCO Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of PEDEVCO Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PEDEVCO Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pedevco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.84 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.77 | |||
| Variance | 14.18 | |||
| Downside Variance | 21.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PEDEVCO Corp
The number of cover stories for PEDEVCO Corp depends on current market conditions and PEDEVCO Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PEDEVCO Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PEDEVCO Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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PEDEVCO Corp Short Properties
PEDEVCO Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when PEDEVCO Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PEDEVCO Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PEDEVCO Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PEDEVCO Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 89.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PEDEVCO Corp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade PEDEVCO Stock refer to our How to Trade PEDEVCO Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PEDEVCO Corp. If investors know PEDEVCO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PEDEVCO Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Earnings Share 0.11 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.23) | Return On Assets |
The market value of PEDEVCO Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PEDEVCO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PEDEVCO Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PEDEVCO Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PEDEVCO Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PEDEVCO Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PEDEVCO Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PEDEVCO Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PEDEVCO Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.