Pro Dex Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PDEX Stock  USD 39.42  1.81  4.39%   
Pro Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Pro Dex's share price is at 51 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Pro Dex, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 51

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Pro Dex's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Pro Dex, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Pro Dex hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pro Dex from the perspective of Pro Dex response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pro Dex on the next trading day is expected to be 39.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.16.

Pro Dex after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 39.42  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pro Dex to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Pro Stock please use our How to Invest in Pro Dex guide.

Pro Dex Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Pro price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pro using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pro charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Pro Dex - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Pro Dex prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Pro Dex price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Pro Dex.

Pro Dex Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pro Dex on the next trading day is expected to be 39.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36, mean absolute percentage error of 3.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.16.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pro Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pro Dex's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pro Dex Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Pro Dex  Pro Dex Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Pro Dex Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Pro Dex's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pro Dex's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.33 and 44.11, respectively. We have considered Pro Dex's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
39.42
39.72
Expected Value
44.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pro Dex stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pro Dex stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.2577
MADMean absolute deviation1.3586
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0366
SAESum of the absolute errors80.1601
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Pro Dex observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Pro Dex observations.

Predictive Modules for Pro Dex

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pro Dex. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Pro Dex's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
35.0339.4243.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.7238.1142.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
37.7940.4443.09
Details

Pro Dex After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Pro Dex at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pro Dex or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pro Dex, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Pro Dex Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Pro Dex's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pro Dex's historical news coverage. Pro Dex's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 35.03 and 43.81, respectively. We have considered Pro Dex's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
39.42
39.42
After-hype Price
43.81
Upside
Pro Dex is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pro Dex is based on 3 months time horizon.

Pro Dex Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pro Dex is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pro Dex backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pro Dex, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.51 
4.39
 0.00  
  0.01 
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
39.42
39.42
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Pro Dex Hype Timeline

Pro Dex is at this time traded for 39.42. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Pro is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.51%. %. The volatility of related hype on Pro Dex is about 23105.26%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.43. About 36.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Pro Dex was at this time reported as 12.73. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Pro Dex had 1:3 split on the 18th of June 2010. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pro Dex to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Pro Stock please use our How to Invest in Pro Dex guide.

Pro Dex Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Pro Dex's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pro Dex's future price movements. Getting to know how Pro Dex's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pro Dex may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Pro Dex

For every potential investor in Pro, whether a beginner or expert, Pro Dex's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pro Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pro. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pro Dex's price trends.

Pro Dex Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pro Dex stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pro Dex could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pro Dex by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Pro Dex Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pro Dex stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pro Dex shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pro Dex stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pro Dex entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Pro Dex Risk Indicators

The analysis of Pro Dex's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pro Dex's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pro stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Pro Dex

The number of cover stories for Pro Dex depends on current market conditions and Pro Dex's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pro Dex is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pro Dex's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Pro Dex Short Properties

Pro Dex's future price predictability will typically decrease when Pro Dex's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pro Dex often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pro Dex's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pro Dex's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding3.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments7.2 M

Additional Tools for Pro Stock Analysis

When running Pro Dex's price analysis, check to measure Pro Dex's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pro Dex is operating at the current time. Most of Pro Dex's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pro Dex's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pro Dex's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pro Dex to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.