PACCAR Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| PCAR Stock | USD 116.81 -0.01 -0.01% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.36 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.1545 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.6319 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.7433 | Wall Street Target Price 125.08 |
This view frames how PACCAR Inc responds to recent headlines and peer activity within its market context. Sentiment is summarized using PACCAR's options positioning and short interest activity.
PACCAR Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in PACCAR's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards PACCAR. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of PACCAR stock and how bullish or bearish investors.
200 Day MA 104.9895 | Short Percent 0.0262 | Short Ratio 3.2 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.1 M | 50 Day MA 122.1534 |
PACCAR Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PACCAR Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 115.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.38.PACCAR Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to PACCAR's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in PACCAR. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding PACCAR can time the market purely based on public headlines and social.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of PACCAR's market sentiment to its price can help traders make decisions based on the overall investor consensus about PACCAR.
PACCAR Implied Volatility | 0.45 |
PACCAR's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of PACCAR Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if PACCAR's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PACCAR Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 115.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.38.PACCAR after-hype prediction price | $ 117.08 |
Sentiment indicators are one input among forecasting models, technical signals, analyst estimates, earnings data, and momentum measures.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of PACCAR to cross-verify projections for PACCAR. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 for the current PACCAR contract - Volatility Context
Using the Rule 16 heuristic, the current implied volatility suggests an average daily move of about 0.0281% for the 2026-05-15 options. With PACCAR trading near $ 116.81, that translates to about $ 0.0329 per day in either direction.
Open Interest for PACCAR 2026-05-15 Options
Open interest counts active option contracts on PACCAR, providing a view of participation and positioning in the options market. It adds context to volatility and price behavior.
PACCAR Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PACCAR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PACCAR using various technical indicators. When you analyze PACCAR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PACCAR Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 115.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41 , mean absolute percentage error of 3.18 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.38 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PACCAR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PACCAR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PACCAR | PACCAR Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for PACCAR Inc uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PACCAR stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PACCAR stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0061 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4132 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0117 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 83.3759 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PACCAR's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PACCAR at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PACCAR's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PACCAR's historical news coverage.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to PACCAR Inc assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PACCAR is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PACCAR backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PACCAR, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.52 | 0.27 | 0.37 | 10 Events | 7 Events | In 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
116.81 | 117.08 | 0.23 |
|
Hype Timeline
PACCAR Inc is at this time traded for 116.81. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.37. PACCAR is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 117.08 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 50.67%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on PACCAR is about 36.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 117.18. The company reported previous year's revenue of 28.44 B. Net Income was 2.38 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.98 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 10 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of PACCAR to cross-verify projections for PACCAR. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PACCAR's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PACCAR's future price movements. Getting to know how PACCAR's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ROP | Roper Technologies | 0.77 | 12 per month | 0.00 | -0.15 | 2.30 | -4.19 | 11.55 | |
| URI | United Rentals | 35.72 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 4.42 | -4.73 | 17.82 | |
| CMI | Cummins | -12.25 | 9 per month | 2.46 | 0.06 | 2.87 | -3.13 | 15.60 | |
| AME | Ametek Inc | 5.12 | 9 per month | 1.40 | 0.12 | 1.87 | -2.57 | 6.79 | |
| FERG | Ferguson Plc | 14.77 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.06 | 3.14 | -3.58 | 8.05 | |
| LHX | L3Harris Technologies | -0.11 | 9 per month | 1.41 | 0.24 | 3.72 | -2.77 | 8.89 | |
| CARR | Carrier Global Corp | -0.23 | 9 per month | 1.81 | 0.07 | 3.25 | -3.26 | 8.76 | |
| GWW | WW Grainger | 2.29 | 9 per month | 1.62 | 0.12 | 3.55 | -2.55 | 12.51 | |
| SYM | Symbotic | -4.27 | 18 per month | 0.00 | -0.04 | 5.59 | -6.59 | 19.71 | |
| CNI | Canadian National Railway | -0.42 | 7 per month | 1.54 | 0.10 | 2.53 | -2.64 | 7.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for PACCAR
For every potential investor in PACCAR, whether a beginner or expert, PACCAR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.PACCAR Related Equities
The following equities are related to PACCAR within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing PACCAR against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PACCAR Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PACCAR stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PACCAR shares will generate the highest return on.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 116.81 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 116.81 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 44.21 |
PACCAR Risk Indicators
The analysis of PACCAR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PACCAR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Variance | 2.45 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.47 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.61 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PACCAR
Coverage intensity for PACCAR Inc matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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PACCAR Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to PACCAR Inc matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 526.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.3 B |
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