PACCAR Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PCAR Stock | USD 111.26 -1.59 -1.41% |
This reference page presents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for PACCAR Inc. The model output shown here is derived from PACCAR's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PACCAR Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 111.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.91.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting PACCAR Inc forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent PACCAR observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for PACCAR Inc is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PACCAR Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 111.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41 , mean absolute percentage error of 3.21 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.91 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PACCAR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PACCAR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PACCAR | PACCAR Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting PACCAR Inc for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The current forecast range spans downside near 109.82 and upside near 112.89.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PACCAR stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PACCAR stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2778 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0244 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4083 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0117 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 85.9092 |
Other Forecasting Options for PACCAR
For every potential investor in PACCAR, whether a beginner or expert, PACCAR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.PACCAR Related Equities
The following equities are related to PACCAR within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing PACCAR against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PACCAR Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PACCAR stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PACCAR shares will generate the highest return on.
| Accumulation Distribution | 129088.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.53 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 111.87 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 111.67 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -1.40 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -1.59 |
PACCAR Risk Indicators
The analysis of PACCAR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PACCAR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Variance | 2.23 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.49 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.47 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PACCAR
A coverage review of PACCAR Inc shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
PACCAR Short Properties
A short-interest review of PACCAR Inc provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 526.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.3 B |
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