Rational/Pier Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| PBXIX Fund | USD 10.74 -0.13 -1.20% |
The Simple Moving Average forecast shown here for Rational/Pier is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Simple Moving Average output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Rationalpier 88 Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 10.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.27.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Rationalpier 88 Convertible price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Rational/Pier. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average reference page for Rational/Pier presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Rationalpier 88 Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 10.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0024 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.27 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rational/Pier Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rational/Pier's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Rational/Pier | Rational/Pier Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Rationalpier 88 Convertible uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rational/Pier mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rational/Pier mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.4003 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0083 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0385 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0035 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for Rational/Pier
The distribution of Rational/Pier's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Rational/Pier's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Rational/Pier's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in Rational/Pier.Rational/Pier Related Equities
Investors studying Rational/Pier often look at related stocks within the Convertibles space to gauge pricing and results. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Rational/Pier's relative financial strength.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Rational/Pier Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Rational/Pier give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Rationalpier 88 Convertible. Market strength analysis for Rationalpier 88 Convertible works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For Rational/Pier, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.74 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.74 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.13 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 32.93 |
Rational/Pier Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Rational/Pier's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Rational/Pier's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of Rational/Pier's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Rational/Pier's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3099 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4053 | |||
| Variance | 0.1643 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Rational/Pier
Coverage intensity for Rationalpier 88 Convertible matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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