Rational/Pier Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PBXIX Fund | USD 10.74 -0.13 -1.20% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Rational/Pier is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rationalpier 88 Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 10.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.08.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Rationalpier 88 Convertible forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Rational/Pier observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Rational/Pier presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rationalpier 88 Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 10.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.002 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.08 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rational/Pier Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rational/Pier's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Rational/Pier | Rational/Pier Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Rational/Pier's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 10.33 and upside around 11.15 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rational/Pier mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rational/Pier mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.9186 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0056 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0341 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0031 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for Rational/Pier
Regardless of investment experience, understanding Rational/Pier's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in Rational/Pier. Price charts for Rational/Pier Mutual Fund are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.Rational/Pier Related Equities
The following equities are related to Rational/Pier within the Convertibles space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Rational/Pier against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Rational/Pier Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Rational/Pier give investors insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators provides context to make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading Rational/Pier is likely to be most rewarding.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.74 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.74 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.13 |
Rational/Pier Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Rational/Pier's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Rational/Pier's.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3099 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4053 | |||
| Variance | 0.1643 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Rational/Pier
Story coverage around Rationalpier 88 Convertible often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.