Paycom Software Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average

PAYC Stock  USD 136.98  -1.03  -0.75%   
As of today, the strength momentum metric for Paycom Software stands at 49, indicating moderately negative momentum. This range suggests moderated price movement without extreme directional pressure.
Momentum 49
 Impartial
 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Paycom Software's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Paycom Software, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Key fundamental drivers for Paycom Software's price forecast:
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.021
 EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.9514
 EPS Estimate Current Year
10.3177
 EPS Estimate Next Year
11.4077
 Wall Street Target Price
152.9412
This view frames how Paycom Software responds to recent headlines and peer activity within its market context. Sentiment is summarized using Paycom Software's options positioning and short interest activity.

Paycom Software Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Paycom Software's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Paycom. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Paycom Software stock and how bullish or bearish investors.
 200 Day MA
193.8683
 Short Percent
0.1056
 Short Ratio
2.62
 Shares Short Prior Month
3.1 M
 50 Day MA
139.9854

Paycom Relative Strength Index

The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Paycom Software on the next trading day is expected to be 137.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 188.22.

Paycom Software Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Paycom Software's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Paycom. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Paycom can time the market purely based on public headlines and social.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Paycom Software's market sentiment to its price can help traders make decisions based on the overall investor consensus about Paycom Software.
Paycom Software Implied Volatility
    
  0.69  
Paycom Software's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Paycom Software stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Paycom Software's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Paycom Software on the next trading day is expected to be 137.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 188.22.
Paycom Software after-hype prediction price
    
  USD 138.01  
Sentiment indicators are one input among forecasting models, technical signals, analyst estimates, earnings data, and momentum measures.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Paycom Software to cross-verify projections for Paycom Software. The view provides historical context for the projection set.
For information on how to trade Paycom Stock refer to our How to Trade Paycom Stock guide.

Rule 16 for the current Paycom contract - Volatility Context

Using the Rule 16 heuristic, the current implied volatility suggests an average daily move of about 0.0431% for the 2026-05-15 options. With Paycom Software trading near USD 136.98, that translates to about USD 0.0591 per day in either direction.

Open Interest for Paycom 2026-05-15 Options

Open interest counts active option contracts on Paycom Software, providing a view of participation and positioning in the options market. It adds context to volatility and price behavior.

Paycom Software Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Paycom price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Paycom using various technical indicators. When you analyze Paycom charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Paycom Software is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Paycom Software Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 10th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Paycom Software on the next trading day is expected to be 137.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.19 , mean absolute percentage error of 16.12 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 188.22 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Paycom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Paycom Software's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Paycom Software Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Paycom Software  Paycom Software Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Paycom Software Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Paycom Software uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
136.98
135.00
Downside
137.49
Expected Value
139.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Paycom Software stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Paycom Software stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2149
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.6639
MADMean absolute deviation3.1902
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0232
SAESum of the absolute errors188.22
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Paycom Software price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Paycom Software. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Paycom Software's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
135.52138.01140.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
114.57117.06151.81
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
139.18152.94169.76
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.632.963.24
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Paycom Software. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Paycom Software's peers to derive any actionable benefits.

Paycom Software After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Paycom Software at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Paycom Software Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Paycom Software's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Paycom Software's historical news coverage.
Current Value
136.98
135.52
Downside
138.01
After-hype Price
140.50
Upside
The after-hype framework applied to Paycom Software assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.

Paycom Software Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Paycom Software is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Paycom Software backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Paycom Software, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.24 
2.49
  0.70 
  0.19 
10 Events
7 Events
In 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
136.98
138.01
0.00 
85.86  
Notes

Paycom Software Hype Timeline

Paycom Software is at this time traded for 136.98. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.7, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.19. Paycom is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 85.86%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Paycom Software is about 318.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 136.79. About 13.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Paycom Software was at this time reported as 32.36. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.24. Paycom Software recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.07. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of March 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 10 days.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Paycom Software to cross-verify projections for Paycom Software. The view provides historical context for the projection set.
For information on how to trade Paycom Stock refer to our How to Trade Paycom Stock guide.

Paycom Software Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Paycom Software's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Paycom Software's future price movements. Getting to know how Paycom Software's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
IDCCInterDigital-7.00 7 per month 2.61 0.02 5.09 -3.96 16.69
OTEXOpen Text Corp 0.35 9 per month 0.00 -0.15 2.79 -4.20 16.88
PEGAPegasystems 1.27 10 per month 0.00 -0.04 5.18 -7.45 17.31
DAYDayforce-0.11 6 per month 0.00  0.10 0.29 -0.25 0.93
MANHManhattan Associates 1.71 8 per month 0.00 -0.07 3.35 -4.64 14.73
AKAMAkamai Technologies-0.91 11 per month 3.01 0.07 4.66 -3.59 24.42
GTMZoomInfo Technologies-0.05 11 per month 0.00 -0.19 4.40 -6.51 17.95
MNDYMondayCom-1.68 10 per month 0.00 -0.22 3.58 -8.39 24.39
APPFAppfolio-2.81 6 per month 0.00 -0.09 3.16 -5.17 11.47
PCTYPaylocity Holdng 1.41 10 per month 0.00 -0.10 3.54 -5.44 13.96

Other Forecasting Options for Paycom Software

For every potential investor in Paycom, whether a beginner or expert, Paycom Software's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.

Paycom Software Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Paycom Software stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Paycom Software could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Paycom Software by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Paycom Software Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Paycom Software stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Paycom Software shares will generate the highest return on.

Paycom Software Risk Indicators

The analysis of Paycom Software's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Paycom Software's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Paycom Software

Coverage intensity for Paycom Software matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Paycom Software Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Paycom Software matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding56.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments370 M

More Resources for Paycom Stock Analysis

A structured review of Paycom Software often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Paycom Software Stock. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for Paycom Software Stock:
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Paycom Software to cross-verify projections for Paycom Software. The view provides historical context for the projection set.
For information on how to trade Paycom Stock refer to our How to Trade Paycom Stock guide.
Analysis related to Paycom Software should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.021
 Dividend Share
1.5
 Earnings Share
8.07
 Revenue Per Share
36.769
 Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.102
The market value of Paycom Software is measured differently than book value, which reflects Paycom accounting equity. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Market price can move with sentiment, cycles, and liquidity conditions, so it may drift away from fundamentals. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
Note that Paycom Software's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. Analysis often considers earnings, revenue quality, fundamentals, technical signals, competition, and analyst coverage. By contrast, market price reflects the level where buyers and sellers transact.