T ROWE Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression
| PATFX Fund | USD 11.22 -0.01 -0.09% |
This page provides Simple Regression reference data for T Rowe Price, calculated from historical daily prices. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 11.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.46.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as T Rowe Price historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. T ROWE's Simple Regression reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 11.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0021 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.46 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PATFX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T ROWE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest T ROWE | T ROWE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting T Rowe Price for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 11.13 and upside around 11.48 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T ROWE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T ROWE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8033 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0397 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0035 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.463 |
Other Forecasting Options for T ROWE
The price movement of PATFX is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. PATFX Mutual Fund price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.T ROWE Related Equities
The following equities are related to T ROWE within the High Yield Muni space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing T ROWE against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T ROWE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to T ROWE mutual fund help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell T Rowe Price.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.22 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.22 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.68 |
T ROWE Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for T ROWE is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in T ROWE's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1164 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.0584 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.17 | |||
| Variance | 0.0289 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.062 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0034 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T ROWE
Coverage intensity for T Rowe Price matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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