T ROWE Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PATFX Fund | USD 11.05 -0.06 -0.54% |
T ROWE's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 11.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.97.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting T Rowe Price forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent T ROWE observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. T ROWE's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 11.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.97 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PATFX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T ROWE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest T ROWE | T ROWE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for T Rowe Price focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T ROWE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T ROWE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.8115 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0162 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for T ROWE
Analyzing T ROWE's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in T ROWE's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.T ROWE Related Equities
Checking T ROWE against related firms within the High Yield Muni space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T ROWE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for T ROWE mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade T ROWE.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.06 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 35.28 |
T ROWE Risk Indicators
Assessing T ROWE's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting T ROWE's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1279 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.1854 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1952 | |||
| Variance | 0.0381 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0941 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0344 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T ROWE
Coverage intensity for T Rowe Price matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.