Penske Automotive Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| PAG Stock | USD 149.70 -0.66 -0.44% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.19 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.3303 | EPS Estimate Current Year 13.5721 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.105 | Wall Street Target Price 181.6667 |
This view frames how Penske Automotive Group responds to recent headlines and peer activity within its market context. Sentiment is summarized using Penske Automotive's options positioning and short interest activity.
Penske Automotive Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Penske Automotive's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Penske. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Penske Automotive stock and how bullish or bearish investors.
200 Day MA 168.7242 | Short Percent 0.1386 | Short Ratio 7.62 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.5 M | 50 Day MA 162.0236 |
Penske Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Penske Automotive Group on the next trading day is expected to be 150.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.57.Penske Automotive Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Penske Automotive's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Penske. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Penske can time the market purely based on public headlines and social.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Penske Automotive's market sentiment to its price can help traders make decisions based on the overall investor consensus about Penske Automotive.
Penske Automotive Implied Volatility | 0.37 |
Penske Automotive's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Penske Automotive Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Penske Automotive's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Penske Automotive Group on the next trading day is expected to be 150.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.57.Penske Automotive after-hype prediction price | $ 150.36 |
Sentiment indicators are one input among forecasting models, technical signals, analyst estimates, earnings data, and momentum measures.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Penske Automotive to cross-verify projections for Penske Automotive. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 for the current Penske contract - Volatility Context
Using the Rule 16 heuristic, the current implied volatility suggests an average daily move of about 0.0231% for the 2026-05-15 options. With Penske Automotive trading near $ 149.7, that translates to about $ 0.0346 per day in either direction.
Open Interest for Penske 2026-05-15 Options
Open interest counts active option contracts on Penske Automotive, providing a view of participation and positioning in the options market. It adds context to volatility and price behavior.
Penske Automotive Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Penske price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Penske using various technical indicators. When you analyze Penske charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Penske Automotive Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Penske Automotive Group on the next trading day is expected to be 150.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.09 , mean absolute percentage error of 8.66 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.57 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Penske Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Penske Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Penske Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Penske Automotive | Penske Automotive Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Penske Automotive Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Penske Automotive Group uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Penske Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Penske Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.594 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4183 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0944 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0129 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 123.57 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Penske Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
Penske Automotive After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Penske Automotive at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Penske Automotive Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Penske Automotive's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Penske Automotive's historical news coverage.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Penske Automotive Group assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Penske Automotive Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Penske Automotive is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Penske Automotive backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Penske Automotive, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.63 | 0.69 | 0.10 | 12 Events | 6 Events | In 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
149.70 | 150.36 | 0.00 |
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Penske Automotive Hype Timeline
On the 12th of March 2026 Penske Automotive is traded for 149.70. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.69, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Penske is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 35.28%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Penske Automotive is about 245.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 149.60. About 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.79. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Penske Automotive has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.68. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.0. The firm last dividend was issued on the 25th of February 2026. Penske Automotive completed a 2:1 stock split on 2nd of June 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 12 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Penske Automotive to cross-verify projections for Penske Automotive. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Penske Automotive Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Penske Automotive's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Penske Automotive's future price movements. Getting to know how Penske Automotive's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AN | AutoNation | -0.21 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.09 | 2.81 | -2.87 | 9.06 | |
| LAD | Lithia Motors | -11.17 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.15 | 3.16 | -3.44 | 11.08 | |
| ALV | Autoliv | 1.39 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 2.84 | -2.47 | 7.36 | |
| NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | -0.29 | 7 per month | 3.28 | 0.05 | 7.47 | -4.78 | 22.67 | |
| CCK | Crown Holdings | 0.85 | 10 per month | 1.40 | 0.07 | 3.31 | -2.56 | 6.71 | |
| MBLY | Mobileye Global Class | 0.17 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.19 | 3.69 | -5.94 | 15.74 | |
| TXRH | Texas Roadhouse | -0.24 | 9 per month | 1.47 | 0.04 | 2.69 | -2.32 | 7.20 | |
| LKQ | LKQ Corporation | -0.47 | 8 per month | 1.61 | 0.07 | 3.36 | -2.42 | 11.87 | |
| KMX | CarMax Inc | 1.25 | 8 per month | 2.85 | 0.07 | 4.63 | -3.79 | 16.15 | |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive | 2.07 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.21 | 1.81 | -2.74 | 10.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for Penske Automotive
For every potential investor in Penske, whether a beginner or expert, Penske Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.Penske Automotive Related Equities
The following equities are related to Penske Automotive within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Penske Automotive against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Penske Automotive Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Penske Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Penske Automotive shares will generate the highest return on.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 149.7 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 149.7 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.33 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.66 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 37.61 |
Penske Automotive Risk Indicators
The analysis of Penske Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Penske Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Variance | 2.59 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Penske Automotive
Coverage intensity for Penske Automotive Group matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Penske Automotive Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Penske Automotive Group matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 64.7 M |
More Resources for Penske Stock Analysis
A structured review of Penske Automotive often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Penske Automotive Group Stock. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for Penske Automotive Group Stock:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Penske Automotive to cross-verify projections for Penske Automotive. The view provides historical context for the projection set. Analysis related to Penske Automotive should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.19 | Dividend Share 5.36 | Earnings Share 14 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth -0.03 |
The market value of Penske Automotive is measured differently than book value, which reflects Penske accounting equity. Penske Automotive's market capitalization is 9.9 B. A P/B ratio of 1.79 indicates the market values Penske Automotive above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 18.63 B. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
Note that Penske Automotive's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. For Penske Automotive, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 6.11, a P/B ratio of 1.79, a profit margin of 2.94%, and ROE of 17.05%. By contrast, market price reflects the level where buyers and sellers transact.