Patria Investments Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| P2AX34 Stock | 29.61 -0.39 -1.30% |
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Patria Investments Limited. The model output shown here is derived from Patria Investments's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Patria Investments Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 29.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.44.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Patria Investments observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Patria Investments Limited observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Patria Investments Limited is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Patria Investments Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 29.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.70 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.44 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Patria Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Patria Investments' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Patria Investments Limited focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Patria Investments stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Patria Investments stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0975 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.524 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0138 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.4421 |
Other Forecasting Options for Patria Investments
For every potential investor in Patria, whether a beginner or expert, Patria Investments' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.Patria Investments Related Equities
The following equities are related to Patria Investments and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Patria Investments against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Patria Investments Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Patria Investments stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Patria Investments shares will generate the highest return on.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 29.61 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 29.61 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.20 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.39 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 21.48 |
Patria Investments Risk Indicators
The analysis of Patria Investments' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Patria Investments' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Variance | 5.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Patria Investments
Coverage intensity for Patria Investments Limited matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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