Patria Investments Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| P2AX34 Stock | 30.12 0.12 0.40% |
This reference page presents Simple Moving Average forecast data for Patria Investments Limited. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Patria Investments Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 30.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.31.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Patria Investments Limited price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Patria Investments. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average forecast data for Patria Investments Limited is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Patria Investments Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 30.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.04 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.31 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Patria Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Patria Investments' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Patria Investments Limited for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Patria Investments stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Patria Investments stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4712 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3376 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6493 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0175 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Patria Investments
Patria Investments' daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Patria often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Patria Investments Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Patria Investments and serve as useful points for comparison. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Patria Investments' results. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors. The data below allows side-by-side review across the most common financial metrics.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Patria Investments Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Patria Investments stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Patria Investments Limited.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.12 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.12 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.06 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.12 |
Patria Investments Risk Indicators
The analysis of Patria Investments' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Patria Investments' allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.2 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Patria Investments
A coverage review of Patria Investments Limited shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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