Old Republic Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ORI Stock | USD 40.05 -0.60 -1.48% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.957 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.86 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.3 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.4833 | Wall Street Target Price 42.5 |
This view relates Old Republic's headline activity to recent price response context. Options and short interest provide context for sentiment around Old Republic in this section.
Short Interest Tracking - Old Republic
Old Republic short interest relative to sector peers provides additional context. If Old Republic's short interest is significantly higher than competitors. the market may perceive company-specific risks that warrant investigation.
200 Day MA 40.6997 | Short Percent 0.0456 | Short Ratio 3.72 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.1 M | 50 Day MA 41.8832 |
RSI Oscillator - Old
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Old Republic International on the next trading day is projected to be 39.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.45.Attention-to-Price Pattern - Old Republic
The relationship between Old Republic's news sentiment and price action reveals how efficiently the market processes new information about Old. Persistent sentiment-price gaps create exploitable opportunities for disciplined investors.
Investors who systematically buy Old Republic when sentiment is deeply negative and sell when it is excessively positive have historically captured mean-reversion returns not available to purely fundamental or technical investors.
Old Republic Implied Volatility | 0.43 |
Implied volatility in Old Republic's options does not predict direction - it measures magnitude. An investor expecting a large move in Old Republic stock in either direction may benefit from strategies that profit from volatility expansion.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Old Republic International on the next trading day is projected to be 39.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.45.Old Republic after-hype prediction price | $ 40.08 |
The sentiment view is a companion to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
Cross-verify projections for Old Republic using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Republic. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Rule 16 Reference for the current Old contract - Performance Context
Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-04-17 options is about 0.0269%. This context is informational: with Old Republic near $ 40.05, the daily move estimate is $ 0.0108 .
Open Interest Map for Old Options 2026-04-17
The open interest measure summarizes active contracts for Old Republic and can be paired with trend context.
Old Republic Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Old price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Old using various technical indicators. When you analyze Old charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Old Republic Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Old Republic International on the next trading day is expected to be 39.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.57 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.45 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Old Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Old Republic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Old Republic Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Old Republic | Old Republic Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Old Republic Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Old Republic International uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Old Republic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Old Republic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1112 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4822 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0118 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.4469 |
Experienced Old Republic's investors use mean reversion as a complement to momentum analysis: momentum identifies the trend; mean reversion identifies when that trend has extended beyond sustainable levels.
Old Republic After-Hype Price Density Analysis
This probability distribution for Old Republic is built from Monte Carlo simulations that incorporate Old Republic's historical volatility, mean reversion tendencies, and jump risk. The resulting distribution captures a broader range of Old Republic outcomes than simple linear.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Old Republic Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The boundaries derived from Old Republic's historical news analysis represent the range within which Old Republic's price has typically settled after comparable headline events. Old Republic's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 38.37 and 41.79, respectively. Outcomes outside these boundaries are less common but not rare for Old Republic.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Old Republic International assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Old Republic Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Old Republic is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Old Republic backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Old Republic, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.71 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 11 Events | 6 Events | In 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
40.05 | 40.08 | 0.07 |
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Old Republic Hype Timeline
On the 12th of March 2026 Old Republic is traded for 40.05. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Old is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 40.08 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Old Republic is about 1921.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 40.04. The company reported last year's revenue of 9.09 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 937 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.76 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in 11 days. Cross-verify projections for Old Republic using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Republic. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Old Republic Related Hype Analysis
Understanding Old Republic's position within its competitive set helps investors assess whether news affecting a peer is a headwind or tailwind for Old Republic. This distinction requires knowledge of the competitive dynamics specific to Old Republic's industry.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CMA | Comerica Incorporated | 4.92 | 3 per month | 1.27 | 0.14 | 2.60 | -2.15 | 9.13 | |
| XP | Xp Inc | -0.1 | 8 per month | 3.35 | 0.03 | 5.29 | -5.49 | 13.43 | |
| WBS | Webster Financial | -0.52 | 11 per month | 1.18 | 0.11 | 1.95 | -1.78 | 12.70 | |
| ACGL | Arch Capital Group | 0.10 | 11 per month | 1.49 | 0.05 | 1.86 | -2.05 | 8.26 | |
| FHN | First Horizon National | -0.07 | 9 per month | 1.76 | 0.01 | 1.82 | -2.88 | 9.14 | |
| AFG | American Financial Group | -1.34 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 1.67 | -2.02 | 5.39 | |
| GGAL | Grupo Financiero Galicia | 0.26 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.04 | 5.15 | -4.57 | 18.85 | |
| GL | Globe Life | -1.44 | 8 per month | 0.96 | 0.12 | 1.94 | -1.43 | 6.53 | |
| SEIC | SEI Investments | 2.10 | 11 per month | 0.00 | 0.0023 | 2.25 | -2.85 | 9.89 | |
| AIZ | Assurant | -4.80 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 2.05 | -2.06 | 11.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Old Republic
Understanding Old Republic's price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering Old as a position. Old Stock price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.Old Republic Related Equities
The following equities are related to Old Republic within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Old Republic against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Old Republic Market Strength Events
For traders and investors in Old Republic International, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the stock's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading Old Republic shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 40.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 40.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.30 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.60 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.62 |
Old Republic Risk Indicators
Analyzing Old Republic's risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Old Republic's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Variance | 2.86 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Old Republic
Coverage intensity for Old Republic International matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Old Republic Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Old Republic International matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 249.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 263.2 M |
More Resources for Old Stock Analysis
Reviewing Old Republic commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Financial ratios provide context for profitability, efficiency, and growth trends. Selected reports below provide context for Old Stock:Cross-verify projections for Old Republic using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Republic. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion. Analysis related to Old Republic should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.957 | Dividend Share 1.16 | Earnings Share 3.66 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.193 |
Understanding Old Republic includes distinguishing between market value and book value, where book value reflects Old accounting equity. Old Republic's market capitalization is 9.84 B. A P/B ratio of 1.69 indicates the market values Old Republic above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 11.32 B. Intrinsic value is an estimate of underlying worth, separate from trading price and book value. The valuation process compares these measures for perspective.
The concept of value for Old Republic differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Old Republic, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 9.33, a P/B ratio of 1.69, a profit margin of 10.24%, and ROE of 16.31%. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.