Old Republic Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ORI Stock | USD 39.36 0.16 0.41% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Old Republic is derived from the equity's published trading history. The resulting forecast and deviation statistics are presented as reference data for informational context. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes. All values shown are derived from publicly available market data.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Old Republic International on the next trading day is projected to be 39.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.38.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Old Republic International forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Old Republic observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Old Republic International reflects Simple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Old Republic International on the next trading day is expected to be 39.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.56 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.38 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Old Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Old Republic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Old Republic | Old Republic Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Old Republic International for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The current forecast range spans downside near 37.56 and upside near 41.16.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Old Republic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Old Republic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5251 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0711 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4652 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0115 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for Old Republic
Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Old Stock price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Old occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Old Republic's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves. A volume spike without a corresponding price move can signal accumulation or distribution ahead of a directional breakout.Old Republic Related Equities
Checking Old Republic against related firms within the Financials space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Looking at Old Republic's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Old Republic Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for Old Republic provides context for understanding stock momentum dynamics. Tracking these indicators helps identify periods where trading Old Republic is likely to be most rewarding. These tools are essential for timing trades in Old Republic International with a quantitative framework. Market strength indicators for Old Republic International are most useful when viewed as part of a broader analytical framework.
Old Republic Risk Indicators
Properly assessing Old Republic's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Old Republic's. Analyzing Old Republic's risk indicators provides a critical input for investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Old Republic's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Variance | 3.05 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Old Republic
A coverage review of Old Republic International shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Old Republic Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Old Republic International can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 249.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.2 B |