Orchid Island Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ORC Stock | USD 6.82 -0.32 -4.48% |
The reference data on this page reflects Triple Exponential Smoothing output applied to Orchid Island Capital's historical daily closing prices. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Orchid Island Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 6.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.55.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Orchid Island observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Orchid Island Capital observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Orchid Island Capital reflects Triple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Orchid Island Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 6.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.55 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Orchid Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Orchid Island's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Orchid Island | Orchid Island Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Orchid Island Capital uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Orchid Island stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Orchid Island stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0187 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.077 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0103 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.5459 |
Other Forecasting Options for Orchid Island
Understanding Orchid Island's price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering Orchid as a position. Orchid Stock price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.Orchid Island Related Equities
The following equities are related to Orchid Island within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Orchid Island against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Orchid Island Market Strength Events
For traders and investors in Orchid Island Capital, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the stock's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading Orchid Island shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.
Orchid Island Risk Indicators
Analyzing Orchid Island's risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Orchid Island's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9689 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Variance | 1.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.04 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Orchid Island
A coverage review of Orchid Island Capital shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Orchid Island Short Properties
A short-interest review of Orchid Island Capital provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 128.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 724.6 M |