Orchid Island Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ORC Stock | USD 7.26 -0.01 -0.14% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.938 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.225 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.13 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.315 | Wall Street Target Price 7.5 |
The hype-based summary links Orchid Island Capital attention patterns with price response and peers. This section summarizes Orchid Island's options flow and short interest as sentiment inputs.
Orchid Island Short Interest Pattern
Orchid Island short interest relative to sector peers provides additional context. If Orchid Island's short interest is significantly higher than competitors. the market may perceive company-specific risks that warrant investigation.
200 Day MA 7.2891 | Short Percent 0.067 | Short Ratio 1.71 | Shares Short Prior Month 15.8 M | 50 Day MA 7.659 |
Orchid RSI Profile
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Orchid Island Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 7.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.41.Orchid Island Capital Sentiment-to-Price Pattern
The relationship between Orchid Island's news sentiment and price action reveals how efficiently the market processes new information about Orchid. Persistent sentiment-price gaps create exploitable opportunities for disciplined investors.
Investors who systematically buy Orchid Island when sentiment is deeply negative and sell when it is excessively positive have historically captured mean-reversion returns not available to purely fundamental or technical investors.
Orchid Island Implied Volatility | 1.43 |
Implied volatility in Orchid Island's options does not predict direction - it measures magnitude. An investor expecting a large move in Orchid Island stock in either direction may benefit from strategies that profit from volatility expansion.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Orchid Island Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 7.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.41.Orchid Island after-hype prediction price | $ 7.26 |
This sentiment summary adds context across forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings perspectives for the stock.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Orchid Island provides a cross-check on projections for Orchid Island. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Open Interest vs. 2026-04-17 Orchid Options
The open interest measure summarizes active contracts for Orchid Island and can be paired with trend context.
Orchid Island Additional Predictive Modules
Predictive models for Orchid Island combine technical indicators with statistical methods to estimate probable price trajectories. Non-stationary data - where mean and variance shift over time - is the norm for Orchid, making adaptive models preferable.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Orchid Island Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 7.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.41 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Orchid Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Orchid Island's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Orchid Island | Orchid Island Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Orchid Island Capital uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Orchid Island stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Orchid Island stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0151 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0748 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.01 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.4107 |
Experienced Orchid Island's investors use mean reversion as a complement to momentum analysis: momentum identifies the trend; mean reversion identifies when that trend has extended beyond sustainable levels.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
This probability distribution for Orchid Island is built from Monte Carlo simulations that incorporate Orchid Island's historical volatility, mean reversion tendencies, and jump risk. The resulting distribution captures a broader range of Orchid Island outcomes than simple linear.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The boundaries derived from Orchid Island's historical news analysis represent the range within which Orchid Island's price has typically settled after comparable headline events. Orchid Island's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.97 and 8.55, respectively. Outcomes outside these boundaries are less common but not rare for Orchid Island.
Current Value
This after-hype projection for Orchid Island Capital uses a 3 months horizon to examine how price may behave after short-term sentiment effects dissipate. The objective is to separate event-driven enthusiasm from a more stable price path once the market absorbs the catalyst.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Orchid Island is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Orchid Island backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Orchid Island, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10 Events | 4 Events | In 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.26 | 7.26 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
On the 17th of March 2026 Orchid Island Capital is traded for 7.26. The company stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Orchid is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Orchid Island is about 2821.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.26. About 42.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.0. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Orchid Island Capital had its last dividend issued on the 27th of February 2026. The company completed a 1:5 stock split on 31st of August 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in 10 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Orchid Island provides a cross-check on projections for Orchid Island. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Understanding Orchid Island's position within its competitive set helps investors assess whether news affecting a peer is a headwind or tailwind for Orchid Island. This distinction requires knowledge of the competitive dynamics specific to Orchid Island's industry.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT | 0.48 | 9 per month | 1.45 | 0.1 | 2.30 | -2.39 | 8.31 | |
| EFC | Ellington Financial | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.12 | 1.19 | -1.64 | 5.07 | |
| TWO | Two Harbors Investments | 0.16 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 5.78 | -5.60 | 25.79 | |
| DX | Dynex Capital | 0.13 | 11 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.38 | -1.29 | 7.46 | |
| EARN | Ellington Residential Mortgage | 0.00 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.09 | 2.29 | -2.79 | 10.12 | |
| OXLC | Oxford Lane Capital | -0.49 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.23 | 2.84 | -5.87 | 17.85 | |
| CLM | Cornerstone Strategic Value | 0.03 | 4 per month | 0.00 | -0.04 | 1.81 | -2.31 | 7.06 |
Other Forecasting Options for Orchid Island
Understanding Orchid Island's price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering Orchid as a position. Orchid Stock price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.Orchid Island Related Equities
The following equities are related to Orchid Island within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Orchid Island against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Orchid Island Market Strength Events
For traders and investors in Orchid Island Capital, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the stock's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading Orchid Island shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.26 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.26 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 |
Orchid Island Risk Indicators
Analyzing Orchid Island's risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Orchid Island's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9077 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Variance | 1.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.03 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Orchid Island
A coverage review of Orchid Island Capital helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Orchid Island Short Properties
A short-interest review of Orchid Island Capital helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 128.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 724.6 M |
More Resources for Orchid Stock Analysis
A structured review of Orchid Island Capital often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Orchid Island Capital Stock. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for Orchid Island Capital Stock:Historical Fundamental Analysis of Orchid Island provides a cross-check on projections for Orchid Island. The view provides historical context for the projection set. Orchid Island at P/E 12.17 and ROE 15.59% (1.39 Billion market cap) - this analysis works best as a complementary layer when evaluating how the position fits in a broader portfolio. That valuation within Real Estate invites comparison with REITāMortgage peers using the tools below to judge whether the multiple is justified. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.938 | Dividend Share 1.44 | Earnings Share 1.24 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 10.031 |
Orchid Island Capital's market price can diverge from book value, the accounting figure shown on Orchid's balance sheet. Orchid Island's market capitalization is 1.39 B. At P/B 1.0, Orchid Island trades moderately above book value. Enterprise value stands at 10.7 B. Intrinsic value reflects what Orchid Island's fundamentals imply about worth, which may differ from both the trading price and the book figure. Analytical frameworks help reconcile those views.
It is useful to distinguish Orchid Island's value from its trading price, which are computed with different methods. For Orchid Island, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 12.17, a P/B ratio of 1.0, a profit margin of 88.59%, and ROE of 15.59%. Where Orchid Island trades at any moment depends on the balance of buying and selling pressure.