Navigator Holdings Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| NVGS Stock | USD 18.71 0.53 2.92% |
Navigator Holdings's Simple Regression reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Navigator Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 20.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.71.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Navigator Holdings historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. Navigator Holdings's Simple Regression reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Navigator Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 20.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.78 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.71 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Navigator Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Navigator Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Navigator Holdings | Navigator Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Navigator Holdings' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 17.92 and upside near 22.36.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Navigator Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Navigator Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.8677 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6838 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0356 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.709 |
Other Forecasting Options for Navigator Holdings
Analyzing Navigator Holdings' price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Navigator Holdings' chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.Navigator Holdings Related Equities
These stocks within the Energy space are often compared to Navigator Holdings by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Checking Navigator Holdings against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Navigator Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Navigator Holdings stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade Navigator Holdings.
Navigator Holdings Risk Indicators
Assessing Navigator Holdings' risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting Navigator Holdings' future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Variance | 4.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.0 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.33 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Navigator Holdings
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Navigator Holdings can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Navigator Holdings Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Navigator Holdings matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 68 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 204.9 M |
Additional Tools for Navigator Stock Analysis
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
| Idea Optimizer Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio | |
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Portfolio Prophet Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find investment opportunities | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios |