Navigator Holdings Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| NVGS Stock | USD 18.08 -2.36 -11.55% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.923 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4534 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.2534 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.7977 | Wall Street Target Price 22.55 |
Hype-based context for Navigator Holdings connects recent headlines with price response and peer activity. This sentiment summary combines Navigator Holdings' options data with short interest context.
Short Interest Snapshot - Navigator Holdings
Short interest in Navigator Holdings is a useful contrarian indicator. Extreme levels of short interest can precede sharp short-covering rallies if positive news surprises the market.
200 Day MA 16.693 | Short Percent 0.0335 | Short Ratio 4.05 | Shares Short Prior Month 937.8 K | 50 Day MA 18.8766 |
RSI Overview - Navigator
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Navigator Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 18.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.87.Hype and Price Pattern for Navigator Holdings
Navigator Holdings' news sentiment aggregates headline tone and social media engagement to build a real-time gauge of investor psychology around Navigator. Sentiment extremes often precede price reversals.
The correlation between Navigator Holdings' news sentiment and price provides a measurable basis for market timing. A strong positive correlation suggests sentiment is currently driving price; a negative one may indicate a potential reversal.
Navigator Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.6 |
Unlike historical volatility, which measures past price movements, Navigator Holdings' implied volatility is a real-time gauge of how much uncertainty the options market is pricing into Navigator Holdings's future price action.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Navigator Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 18.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.87.Navigator Holdings after-hype prediction price | $ 18.63 |
This sentiment layer is designed to be read with forecasting, technical, analyst, earnings, and momentum context.
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Rule 16 for the current Navigator contract - Risk Context
Using the Rule 16 heuristic, the current implied volatility suggests an average daily move of about 0.0375% for the 2026-06-18 options. The figure is a neutral volatility reference; near $ 18.08, it implies about $ 0.00678 per day.
Open Interest vs. 2026-06-18 Navigator Options
The open interest view shows outstanding Navigator Holdings option contracts, providing context on participation and contract flow.
Navigator Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Navigator price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Navigator using various technical indicators. When you analyze Navigator charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Navigator Holdings Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Navigator Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 18.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.18 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.87 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Navigator Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Navigator Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Navigator Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Navigator Holdings | Navigator Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Navigator Holdings Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Navigator Holdings uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Navigator Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Navigator Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0518 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2521 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.8748 |
Mean reversion in Navigator Holdings' price occurs when temporary dislocations - caused by sentiment extremes, news events, or liquidity shocks - correct back toward the stock's historical fair value.
Navigator Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Understanding Navigator Holdings' probability distribution helps investors calibrate position size to their risk tolerance. The tails of the Navigator Holdings distribution capture low-probability but high-impact outcomes that naive point estimates ignore.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Navigator Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Using Navigator Holdings' historical news impact data, we estimate the likely price corridor for the next trading session after a significant headline. Navigator Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.72 and 20.54, respectively. Note that past news reactions for Navigator Holdings are not guaranteed to repeat, particularly in novel market environments.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Navigator Holdings assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Navigator Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Navigator Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Navigator Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Navigator Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.12 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 11 Events | 6 Events | In 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.08 | 18.63 | 0.22 |
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Navigator Holdings Hype Timeline
Navigator Holdings is now traded for 18.08. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Navigator is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.63 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.22%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Navigator Holdings is about 3117.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.07. The company reported previous year's revenue of 566.68 M. Net Income was 85.57 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 313.35 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 11 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Navigator Holdings to cross-verify projections for Navigator Holdings. The historical series provides projection context.Navigator Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Understanding how Navigator Holdings' direct competitors react to news events helps investors anticipate contagion effects and sector-wide sentiment shifts that may affect Navigator Holdings's performance.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DMLP | Dorchester Minerals LP | 0.47 | 11 per month | 1.01 | 0.21 | 3.22 | -2.56 | 6.69 | |
| VET | Vermilion Energy | -0.1 | 7 per month | 2.33 | 0.17 | 5.04 | -4.57 | 11.72 | |
| LPG | Dorian LPG | 0.11 | 10 per month | 2.29 | 0.17 | 3.98 | -3.51 | 12.13 | |
| FLNG | FLEX LNG | 0.23 | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.17 | 3.56 | -2.07 | 6.14 | |
| VTOL | Bristow Group | -1.34 | 8 per month | 1.45 | 0.16 | 3.40 | -3.00 | 7.57 | |
| RES | RPC Inc | 0.06 | 9 per month | 3.19 | 0.07 | 4.80 | -2.62 | 22.74 | |
| NESR | National Energy Services | -0.77 | 10 per month | 2.01 | 0.17 | 6.76 | -3.42 | 21.30 | |
| GLP | Global Partners LP | 0.90 | 6 per month | 1.61 | 0.1 | 2.56 | -2.87 | 9.16 | |
| TK | Teekay | 0.1 | 9 per month | 1.52 | 0.16 | 3.15 | -2.33 | 13.41 | |
| PUMP | ProPetro Holding Corp | -0.34 | 11 per month | 2.87 | 0.09 | 6.65 | -5.49 | 13.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Navigator Holdings
The price movement of Navigator is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. Navigator Stock price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.Navigator Holdings Related Equities
The following equities are related to Navigator Holdings within the Energy space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Navigator Holdings against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Navigator Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Navigator Holdings stock help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Navigator Holdings.
Navigator Holdings Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Navigator Holdings is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Navigator Holdings' investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Variance | 2.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.49 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.28 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Navigator Holdings
Coverage intensity for Navigator Holdings matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Navigator Holdings Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Navigator Holdings matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 71.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 130.5 M |
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