Natural Grocers Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| NGVC Stock | USD 25.93 0.94 3.50% |
Natural Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Natural Grocers stock prices and determine the direction of Natural Grocers by's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Natural Grocers' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of Natural Grocers' share price is approaching 42. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Natural Grocers, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.25 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.95 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.17 | Wall Street Target Price 54 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.063 |
Using Natural Grocers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Natural Grocers by from the perspective of Natural Grocers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Natural Grocers using Natural Grocers' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Natural using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Natural Grocers' stock price.
Natural Grocers Implied Volatility | 1.16 |
Natural Grocers' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Natural Grocers by stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Natural Grocers' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Natural Grocers stock will not fluctuate a lot when Natural Grocers' options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Natural Grocers by on the next trading day is expected to be 27.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.36. Natural Grocers after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Natural Grocers to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Natural contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Natural Grocers by will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0725% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Natural Grocers trading at USD 25.93, that is roughly USD 0.0188 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Natural Grocers' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Natural Grocers by options at the current volatility level of 1.16%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Natural Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Natural Grocers' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Natural Grocers' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Natural Grocers stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Natural Grocers' open interest, investors have to compare it to Natural Grocers' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Natural Grocers is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Natural. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Natural Grocers Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Natural price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Natural using various technical indicators. When you analyze Natural charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Natural Grocers Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Natural Grocers by on the next trading day is expected to be 27.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Natural Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Natural Grocers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Natural Grocers Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Natural Grocers | Natural Grocers Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Natural Grocers Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Natural Grocers' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Natural Grocers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.07 and 29.59, respectively. We have considered Natural Grocers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Natural Grocers stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Natural Grocers stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.6756 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6671 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0238 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.3607 |
Predictive Modules for Natural Grocers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natural Grocers by. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natural Grocers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Natural Grocers After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Natural Grocers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Natural Grocers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Natural Grocers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Natural Grocers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Natural Grocers' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Natural Grocers' historical news coverage. Natural Grocers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 2.61, respectively. We have considered Natural Grocers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Natural Grocers is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Natural Grocers by is based on 3 months time horizon.
Natural Grocers Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Natural Grocers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Natural Grocers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Natural Grocers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 2.26 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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Natural Grocers Hype Timeline
Natural Grocers by is now traded for 25.93. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Natural is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Natural Grocers is about 203400.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.93. About 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Natural Grocers was now reported as 8.82. The company last dividend was issued on the 2nd of September 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Natural Grocers to cross-verify your projections.Natural Grocers Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Natural Grocers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Natural Grocers' future price movements. Getting to know how Natural Grocers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Natural Grocers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corp | 0.72 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.47 | (3.26) | 12.80 | |
| JBSS | John B Sanfilippo | (0.38) | 5 per month | 1.55 | 0.10 | 2.44 | (2.19) | 23.73 | |
| DNUT | Krispy Kreme | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.39 | (5.95) | 20.08 | |
| AVO | Mission Produce | (0.05) | 2 per month | 2.58 | 0.07 | 2.46 | (3.23) | 12.39 | |
| HLF | Herbalife Nutrition | (0.38) | 12 per month | 1.86 | 0.23 | 9.22 | (4.28) | 30.37 | |
| KLC | KinderCare Learning Companies | 0.04 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.00 | (6.18) | 24.00 | |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market | 0.32 | 8 per month | 1.39 | (0.01) | 2.82 | (2.07) | 7.68 | |
| EPC | Edgewell Personal Care | 0.13 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.32 | (3.04) | 8.34 | |
| DDL | Dingdong Limited ADR | (0.38) | 12 per month | 2.88 | 0.13 | 8.38 | (6.16) | 31.13 |
Other Forecasting Options for Natural Grocers
For every potential investor in Natural, whether a beginner or expert, Natural Grocers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Natural Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Natural. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Natural Grocers' price trends.Natural Grocers Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Natural Grocers stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Natural Grocers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Natural Grocers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Natural Grocers Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Natural Grocers stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Natural Grocers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Natural Grocers stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Natural Grocers by entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 10155.9 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.83) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 26.28 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 26.16 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.82) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.94) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.7 |
Natural Grocers Risk Indicators
The analysis of Natural Grocers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Natural Grocers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting natural stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.64 | |||
| Variance | 6.97 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Natural Grocers
The number of cover stories for Natural Grocers depends on current market conditions and Natural Grocers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Natural Grocers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Natural Grocers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Natural Grocers Short Properties
Natural Grocers' future price predictability will typically decrease when Natural Grocers' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Natural Grocers by often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Natural Grocers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natural Grocers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Natural Grocers to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Will Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail sector continue expanding? Could Natural diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Grocers. Anticipated expansion of Natural directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Natural Grocers data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.25 | Dividend Share 0.46 | Earnings Share 1.88 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.063 |
Understanding Natural Grocers by requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Natural's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Natural Grocers' is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Natural Grocers' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Natural Grocers' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Natural Grocers should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Natural Grocers' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.