VICTORY INTEGRITY Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MYIMX Fund | USD 24.36 -0.01 -0.04% |
This page documents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast output for Victory Integrity Mid Cap as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Victory Integrity Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 24.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.58.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past VICTORY INTEGRITY observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Victory Integrity Mid Cap observations. The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference information for VICTORY INTEGRITY is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Victory Integrity Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 24.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.58 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VICTORY Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VICTORY INTEGRITY's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VICTORY INTEGRITY | VICTORY INTEGRITY Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Victory Integrity Mid Cap for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VICTORY INTEGRITY mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VICTORY INTEGRITY mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0403 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1793 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0071 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.5759 |
Other Forecasting Options for VICTORY INTEGRITY
Any investor evaluating VICTORY must grapple with the challenge of interpreting VICTORY INTEGRITY's price movement accurately. VICTORY Mutual Fund price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.VICTORY INTEGRITY Related Equities
The following equities are related to VICTORY INTEGRITY within the Mid-Cap Value space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing VICTORY INTEGRITY against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VICTORY INTEGRITY Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for VICTORY INTEGRITY assess how the mutual fund responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Victory Integrity Mid Cap.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 24.36 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 24.36 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.04 |
VICTORY INTEGRITY Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for VICTORY INTEGRITY is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in VICTORY INTEGRITY's investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6857 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8338 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9016 | |||
| Variance | 0.8129 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8658 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6952 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.70 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VICTORY INTEGRITY
Coverage intensity for Victory Integrity Mid Cap matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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