Monolithic Power Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

MPWR Stock  USD 1,069  -23.84  -2.18%   
Monolithic Power's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is presented on this page, derived from the application of the forecasting model to historical closing prices. Projected values and accuracy measures are included for reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Monolithic Power Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 1,068 with a mean absolute deviation of 23.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,428.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Monolithic Power observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Monolithic Power Systems observations. The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference information for Monolithic Power is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes.
Triple exponential smoothing for Monolithic Power - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Monolithic Power prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Monolithic Power price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Monolithic Power Systems.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Monolithic Power Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 1,068 with a mean absolute deviation of 23.79 , mean absolute percentage error of 935.98 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,428 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Monolithic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Monolithic Power's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Monolithic Power's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Market Value
1,069
1,068
Expected Value
1,071
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Monolithic Power stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Monolithic Power stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -4.7294
MADMean absolute deviation23.793
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0218
SAESum of the absolute errors1427.5817
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Monolithic Power observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Monolithic Power Systems observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Monolithic Power

For any investor considering Monolithic, Monolithic Power's price movement is the central factor in determining investment viability. The noise present in Monolithic Stock price charts can distort investment decisions if not properly addressed.

Monolithic Power Related Equities

The following equities are related to Monolithic Power within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Monolithic Power against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Monolithic Power Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Monolithic Power stock help investors evaluate the security's behavior relative to ongoing market conditions. These tools support better market timing and help identify entry and exit signals for Monolithic Power Systems.

Monolithic Power Risk Indicators

The analysis of Monolithic Power's basic risk indicators is a key input for accurate price forecasting and sound investment decisions. Understanding the risk in Monolithic Power's investment allows investors to make informed choices about accepting or mitigating that exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Monolithic Power

Story coverage around Monolithic Power Systems often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.

Monolithic Power Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Monolithic Power Systems can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding48.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.3 B

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