Monolithic Power Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MPWR Stock | USD 1,069 -23.84 -2.18% |
Monolithic Power's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is presented on this page, derived from the application of the forecasting model to historical closing prices. Projected values and accuracy measures are included for reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Monolithic Power Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 1,068 with a mean absolute deviation of 23.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,428.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Monolithic Power observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Monolithic Power Systems observations. The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference information for Monolithic Power is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Monolithic Power Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 1,068 with a mean absolute deviation of 23.79 , mean absolute percentage error of 935.98 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,428 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Monolithic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Monolithic Power's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Monolithic Power's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Monolithic Power stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Monolithic Power stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -4.7294 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 23.793 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0218 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1427.5817 |
Other Forecasting Options for Monolithic Power
For any investor considering Monolithic, Monolithic Power's price movement is the central factor in determining investment viability. The noise present in Monolithic Stock price charts can distort investment decisions if not properly addressed.Monolithic Power Related Equities
The following equities are related to Monolithic Power within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Monolithic Power against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Monolithic Power Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Monolithic Power stock help investors evaluate the security's behavior relative to ongoing market conditions. These tools support better market timing and help identify entry and exit signals for Monolithic Power Systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 48983.47 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.46 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1077.17 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1074.39 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -20.24 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -23.84 |
Monolithic Power Risk Indicators
The analysis of Monolithic Power's basic risk indicators is a key input for accurate price forecasting and sound investment decisions. Understanding the risk in Monolithic Power's investment allows investors to make informed choices about accepting or mitigating that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.76 | |||
| Variance | 7.6 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.04 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.9 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.05 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Monolithic Power
Story coverage around Monolithic Power Systems often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Monolithic Power Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Monolithic Power Systems can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
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