MI Homes Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MHO Stock | USD 135.75 2.60 1.88% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MI Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 135.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.67. MHO Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although MI Homes' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of MI Homes' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of MI Homes fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of MI Homes' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.23) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.49 | EPS Estimate Current Year 16.2133 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.6233 | Wall Street Target Price 157 |
Using MI Homes hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MI Homes from the perspective of MI Homes response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MI Homes using MI Homes' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MHO using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MI Homes' stock price.
MI Homes Short Interest
An investor who is long MI Homes may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about MI Homes and may potentially protect profits, hedge MI Homes with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 126.4009 | Short Percent 0.0605 | Short Ratio 5.68 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 132.089 |
MI Homes Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to MI Homes' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in MHO. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding MHO can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around MI Homes. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
MI Homes Implied Volatility | 0.48 |
MI Homes' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MI Homes stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MI Homes' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MI Homes stock will not fluctuate a lot when MI Homes' options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MI Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 135.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.67. MI Homes after-hype prediction price | USD 135.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MI Homes to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MHO contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MI Homes will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.03% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With MI Homes trading at USD 135.75, that is roughly USD 0.0407 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MI Homes' daily price movement you should consider acquiring MI Homes options at the current volatility level of 0.48%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 MHO Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast MI Homes' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in MI Homes' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for MI Homes stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current MI Homes' open interest, investors have to compare it to MI Homes' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of MI Homes is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in MHO. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
MI Homes Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MHO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MHO using various technical indicators. When you analyze MHO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MI Homes Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MI Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 135.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.05, mean absolute percentage error of 8.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MHO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MI Homes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MI Homes Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MI Homes | MI Homes Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MI Homes Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MI Homes' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MI Homes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 133.85 and 137.97, respectively. We have considered MI Homes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MI Homes stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MI Homes stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4442 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0452 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0155 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 120.6697 |
Predictive Modules for MI Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MI Homes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MI Homes After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MI Homes at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MI Homes or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MI Homes, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MI Homes Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MI Homes' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MI Homes' historical news coverage. MI Homes' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 133.80 and 137.92, respectively. We have considered MI Homes' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MI Homes is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MI Homes is based on 3 months time horizon.
MI Homes Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MI Homes is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MI Homes backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MI Homes, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.06 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
135.75 | 135.86 | 0.08 |
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MI Homes Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January MI Homes is traded for 135.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. MHO is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 135.86 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 149.28%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on MI Homes is about 1248.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 135.74. The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.5 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 563.73 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.09 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MI Homes to cross-verify your projections.MI Homes Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MI Homes' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MI Homes' future price movements. Getting to know how MI Homes' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MI Homes may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GRBK | Green Brick Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.61 | (0) | 4.56 | (3.08) | 10.63 | |
| TPH | TRI Pointe Homes | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.54 | 0.01 | 5.16 | (2.65) | 10.81 | |
| SKY | Skyline | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.12 | 0.09 | 4.86 | (3.89) | 14.49 | |
| KBH | KB Home | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.30 | (2.48) | 15.09 | |
| MTH | Meritage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.91 | (0.01) | 3.46 | (2.86) | 13.06 | |
| ANF | Abercrombie Fitch | (1.01) | 10 per month | 3.51 | 0.10 | 5.90 | (3.84) | 55.23 | |
| HOG | Harley Davidson | 0.14 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.41 | (3.40) | 8.88 | |
| ASO | Academy Sports Outdoors | (1.69) | 9 per month | 2.18 | 0.04 | 4.95 | (3.51) | 12.70 | |
| DFH | Dream Finders Homes | (0.47) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.95 | (3.60) | 14.94 | |
| CVCO | Cavco Industries | 1.38 | 4 per month | 2.34 | 0.06 | 4.83 | (2.50) | 9.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for MI Homes
For every potential investor in MHO, whether a beginner or expert, MI Homes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MHO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MHO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MI Homes' price trends.MI Homes Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MI Homes stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MI Homes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MI Homes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MI Homes Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MI Homes stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MI Homes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MI Homes stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MI Homes entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MI Homes Risk Indicators
The analysis of MI Homes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MI Homes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mho stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Variance | 4.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.98 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MI Homes
The number of cover stories for MI Homes depends on current market conditions and MI Homes' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MI Homes is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MI Homes' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MI Homes Short Properties
MI Homes' future price predictability will typically decrease when MI Homes' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MI Homes often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MI Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MI Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 28.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 822 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MI Homes to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in MHO Stock, please use our How to Invest in MI Homes guide.You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MI Homes. If investors know MHO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MI Homes listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.23) | Earnings Share 16.75 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets |
The market value of MI Homes is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MHO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MI Homes' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MI Homes' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MI Homes' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MI Homes' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MI Homes' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MI Homes is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MI Homes' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.