Meta Platforms Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| META Stock | USD 658.76 11.13 1.72% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Meta Platforms on the next trading day is expected to be 659.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 592.05. Meta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Meta Platforms stock prices and determine the direction of Meta Platforms's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Meta Platforms' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Meta Platforms' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.83) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 8.0892 | EPS Estimate Current Year 22.9562 | EPS Estimate Next Year 29.6235 | Wall Street Target Price 834.1525 |
Using Meta Platforms hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Meta Platforms from the perspective of Meta Platforms response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Meta Platforms using Meta Platforms' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Meta using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Meta Platforms' stock price.
Meta Platforms Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Meta Platforms' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Meta. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Meta Platforms stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 675.8181 | Short Percent 0.0152 | Short Ratio 2.17 | Shares Short Prior Month 32 M | 50 Day MA 638.7244 |
Meta Platforms Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Meta Platforms' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Meta. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Meta can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Meta Platforms. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Meta Platforms Implied Volatility | 0.56 |
Meta Platforms' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Meta Platforms stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Meta Platforms' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Meta Platforms stock will not fluctuate a lot when Meta Platforms' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Meta Platforms on the next trading day is expected to be 659.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 592.05. Meta Platforms after-hype prediction price | USD 645.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meta Platforms to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Meta contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Meta Platforms will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.035% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Meta Platforms trading at USD 658.76, that is roughly USD 0.23 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Meta Platforms' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Meta Platforms options at the current volatility level of 0.56%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Meta Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Meta Platforms' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Meta Platforms' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Meta Platforms stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Meta Platforms' open interest, investors have to compare it to Meta Platforms' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Meta Platforms is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Meta. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Meta Platforms Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Meta price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Meta using various technical indicators. When you analyze Meta charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Meta Platforms Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Meta Platforms on the next trading day is expected to be 659.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.03, mean absolute percentage error of 239.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 592.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Meta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Meta Platforms' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Meta Platforms Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Meta Platforms | Meta Platforms Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Meta Platforms Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Meta Platforms' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Meta Platforms' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 657.17 and 661.59, respectively. We have considered Meta Platforms' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Meta Platforms stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Meta Platforms stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.1805 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 10.0347 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0156 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 592.05 |
Predictive Modules for Meta Platforms
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Meta Platforms. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Meta Platforms' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Meta Platforms After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Meta Platforms at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Meta Platforms or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Meta Platforms, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Meta Platforms Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Meta Platforms' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Meta Platforms' historical news coverage. Meta Platforms' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 642.98 and 712.39, respectively. We have considered Meta Platforms' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Meta Platforms is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Meta Platforms is based on 3 months time horizon.
Meta Platforms Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Meta Platforms is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Meta Platforms backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Meta Platforms, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 2.21 | 2.42 | 0.60 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
658.76 | 645.21 | 0.37 |
|
Meta Platforms Hype Timeline
Meta Platforms is now traded for 658.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.42, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.6. Meta is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 645.21. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 20.13%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.37%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Meta Platforms is about 81.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 658.16. About 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.43. Meta Platforms recorded earning per share (EPS) of 22.62. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meta Platforms to cross-verify your projections.Meta Platforms Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Meta Platforms' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Meta Platforms' future price movements. Getting to know how Meta Platforms' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Meta Platforms may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | (1.66) | 6 per month | 1.79 | 0.04 | 3.06 | (3.45) | 9.62 | |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 6.51 | 34 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.49 | (4.48) | 22.53 | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Class A | (3.53) | 9 per month | 1.22 | 0.18 | 3.53 | (2.42) | 9.53 | |
| ORCL | Oracle | (5.16) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 3.34 | (5.85) | 14.86 | |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems | (0.02) | 24 per month | 1.18 | 0.0008 | 1.97 | (2.00) | 8.38 | |
| IBM | International Business Machines | (11.05) | 7 per month | 1.77 | (0) | 2.54 | (2.89) | 12.56 | |
| GRMN | Garmin | 0.78 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.07 | (2.42) | 12.54 | |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | (2.19) | 10 per month | 2.06 | 0.17 | 5.00 | (3.61) | 10.80 | |
| MU | Micron Technology | (8.14) | 8 per month | 2.98 | 0.24 | 8.93 | (5.56) | 19.80 |
Other Forecasting Options for Meta Platforms
For every potential investor in Meta, whether a beginner or expert, Meta Platforms' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Meta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Meta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Meta Platforms' price trends.Meta Platforms Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Meta Platforms stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Meta Platforms could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Meta Platforms by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Meta Platforms Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Meta Platforms stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Meta Platforms shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Meta Platforms stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Meta Platforms entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 753242.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.505 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 655.47 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 656.57 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 8.85 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 11.13 |
Meta Platforms Risk Indicators
The analysis of Meta Platforms' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Meta Platforms' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting meta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Variance | 4.65 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Meta Platforms
The number of cover stories for Meta Platforms depends on current market conditions and Meta Platforms' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Meta Platforms is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Meta Platforms' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Meta Platforms Short Properties
Meta Platforms' future price predictability will typically decrease when Meta Platforms' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Meta Platforms often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Meta Platforms' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Meta Platforms' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 77.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meta Platforms to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Meta Stock refer to our How to Trade Meta Stock guide.You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Interactive Media & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Meta Platforms. If investors know Meta will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Meta Platforms listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.83) | Dividend Share 2.075 | Earnings Share 22.62 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.262 |
The market value of Meta Platforms is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Meta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Meta Platforms' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Meta Platforms' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Meta Platforms' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Meta Platforms' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Meta Platforms' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Meta Platforms is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Meta Platforms' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.