Macerich Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MAC Stock | USD 19.43 0.21 1.09% |
Momentum
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 39.711 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter -0.10 | EPS Estimate Current Year -0.16 | EPS Estimate Next Year -0.02 | Wall Street Target Price 21.1875 |
This view frames how Macerich Company responds to recent headlines and peer activity within its market context. Sentiment is summarized using Macerich's options positioning and short interest activity.
Macerich Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Macerich's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Macerich. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Macerich stock and how bullish or bearish investors.
200 Day MA 17.6514 | Short Percent 0.0787 | Short Ratio 5.71 | Shares Short Prior Month 14.8 M | 50 Day MA 19.0018 |
Macerich Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Macerich Company on the next trading day is expected to be 19.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.50.Macerich Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Macerich's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Macerich. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Macerich can time the market purely based on public headlines and social.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Macerich's market sentiment to its price can help traders make decisions based on the overall investor consensus about Macerich.
Macerich Implied Volatility | 1.5 |
Macerich's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Macerich Company stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Macerich's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Macerich Company on the next trading day is expected to be 19.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.50.Macerich after-hype prediction price | $ 19.43 |
Sentiment indicators are one input among forecasting models, technical signals, analyst estimates, earnings data, and momentum measures.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Macerich to cross-verify projections for Macerich. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 for the current Macerich contract - Volatility Context
Using the Rule 16 heuristic, the current implied volatility suggests an average daily move of about 0.0938% for the 2026-03-20 options. With Macerich trading near $ 19.43, that translates to about $ 0.0182 per day in either direction.
Open Interest for Macerich 2026-03-20 Options
Open interest counts active option contracts on Macerich, providing a view of participation and positioning in the options market. It adds context to volatility and price behavior.
Macerich Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Macerich price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Macerich using various technical indicators. When you analyze Macerich charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Macerich Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Macerich Company on the next trading day is expected to be 19.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.13 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.50 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Macerich Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Macerich's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Macerich Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Macerich | Macerich Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Macerich Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Macerich Company uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Macerich stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Macerich stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.218 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0177 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.275 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0145 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.5 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Macerich's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
Macerich After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Macerich at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Macerich Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Macerich's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Macerich's historical news coverage.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Macerich Company assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Macerich Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Macerich is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Macerich backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Macerich, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.89 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 8 Events | 7 Events | In 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.43 | 19.43 | 0.00 |
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Macerich Hype Timeline
On the 12th of March 2026 Macerich is traded for 19.43. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. Macerich is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Macerich is about 122.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.28. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Macerich was now reported as 9.53. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.78. Macerich last dividend was issued on the 16th of March 2026. The company completed a 1014:1000 stock split on 11th of February 2010. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 8 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Macerich to cross-verify projections for Macerich. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Macerich Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Macerich's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Macerich's future price movements. Getting to know how Macerich's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PECO | Phillips Edison Co | 0.20 | 10 per month | 0.47 | 0.20 | 1.95 | -0.91 | 4.30 | |
| REG | Regency Centers | 0.33 | 9 per month | 0.67 | 0.23 | 1.85 | -1.31 | 4.32 | |
| KRG | Kite Realty Group | -0.42 | 7 per month | 0.67 | 0.23 | 2.10 | -1.55 | 4.67 | |
| ABR | Arbor Realty Trust | -0.36 | 3 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 4.14 | -3.39 | 13.31 | |
| SLG | SL Green Realty | -0.62 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 3.99 | -3.71 | 11.44 | |
| SKT | Tanger Factory Outlet | -0.09 | 9 per month | 0.84 | 0.13 | 2.15 | -1.71 | 7.81 | |
| CUZ | Cousins Properties Incorporated | -14.10 | 22 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 3.26 | -2.86 | 11.95 | |
| EPR | EPR Properties | 0.40 | 9 per month | 1.09 | 0.13 | 2.21 | -2.00 | 7.84 | |
| PSA | Public Storage | 0.78 | 21 per month | 1.22 | 0.11 | 2.84 | -1.97 | 6.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for Macerich
For every potential investor in Macerich, whether a beginner or expert, Macerich's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.Macerich Related Equities
The following equities are related to Macerich within the Real Estate space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Macerich against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Macerich Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Macerich stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Macerich shares will generate the highest return on.
Macerich Risk Indicators
The analysis of Macerich's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Macerich's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Variance | 3.6 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.42 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Macerich
Coverage intensity for Macerich Company matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Macerich Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Macerich Company matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 256.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 43 M |
More Resources for Macerich Stock Analysis
A structured review of Macerich often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Macerich Company Stock. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for Macerich Company Stock:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Macerich to cross-verify projections for Macerich. The view provides historical context for the projection set. Analysis related to Macerich should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 39.711 | Dividend Share 0.68 | Earnings Share -0.78 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth -0.17 |
The market value of Macerich is measured differently than book value, which reflects Macerich accounting equity. Macerich's market capitalization is 5.22 B. A P/B ratio of 2.03 indicates the market values Macerich above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 9.82 B. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
Note that Macerich's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. For Macerich, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 53.0, a P/B ratio of 2.03, a profit margin of -18.94%, and ROE of -7.49%. By contrast, market price reflects the level where buyers and sellers transact.